# Turn 001 — Player Analysis: player1 / Ridgeford

**Status:** GM-only recommendation; no outcome approved

## Submission record

- **Intake:** T001-I01 — VALID; no miss; streak 0
- **Archive:** `intake/player1/turn-001/submission.md`
- **Size:** 1,101 words; 6,772 bytes
- **SHA-256:** `0aff1e344d268f4f0c5c2fe5bdbd8c2a3d72c809878b74b15c4288607b272e7f`

## Neutral interpretation

The Bridgewarden closes the damaged crossing, places Dorr and Evin over a witnessed inspection, and authorizes only a bounded repair if the load-bearing core is sound enough. Shelter, seed, fodder, worker grain, and safety authorities remain protected. Sila develops a temporary people-and-light-load route and a stock decision horizon. Pell may make a tightly limited Northbarrow inquiry only after essential work is staffed.

## Intentions

| ID | Priority | Intended change | Method and owner | Dependencies and contingencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1-A | 1 | Establish the real failure and make the site safe | Dorr/Evin inspection, witnesses, closure | Stop for deep scour, shifting stone, or dangerous current |
| P1-B | 1 | Complete only a causally justified repair | Ten-day bounded rotation; Dorr stone authority; Evin river authority | No cosmetic facing; cattle require repeated tests |
| P1-C | 2 | Protect herds and common access during closure | Sila fodder count, light-load boats, household meeting | No cattle in spring current; alternate route must be inspected |
| P1-D | Supporting | Protect stores, shelter, and legitimacy | Mara ledger and grain count; Orra minimum skilled allocation | Seed untouched; grain only to approved rotation |
| P1-E | Conditional | Learn Northbarrow's needs without commitment | Pell plus companion, half-provision return rule | Only after essential crews are staffed; no store or access promise |

## Personal expertise and leadership attention

The leader uses the legitimacy earned in the winter roof rescue as convening and conflict-settlement authority, not as technical expertise. Personal attention is placed at the inspection report, first witnessed grain releases, and herding meeting. Dorr, Evin, Sila, Mara, and Orra keep domain authority.

## Intrinsic difficulty before power

| Intent | Worst defensible result | Best defensible result | Missing prerequisites / unavoidable costs / uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inspect and stabilize | Further movement forces closure with only the approach made safe | Cause isolated; stable limited repair and reliable light passage | Hydrology and buried core unknown; current and stone work remain dangerous |
| Restore stock access | Fodder declines while cattle remain on the near side | Tested cattle passage late in month or a verified alternate route | No known safe cattle route; boats cannot solve stock movement |
| Preserve competing work | Repair consumes grain and helpers despite controls | Essential shelter/drainage and accountable repair both continue | Finite skilled hands and eleven lean food weeks |
| Contact Northbarrow | No contact or only uncertain tracks | Pell returns with timing, needs, and a bounded offer | Safe path and Northbarrow response are external |

## Evidence-based scoring

| Dimension | Score | Positive evidence | Defects / effect relevance |
|---|---:|---|---|
| Direction | 5 | Closure, test standard, repair branch, and no-promise boundary are transmittable | No material ambiguity; affects compliance and quality |
| Focus | 4 | Critical path and explicit deferrals are strong | Apprenticeship, ledger, route governance, and Pell inquiry add breadth during a crossing crisis |
| Orchestration | 5 | Named owners, handoffs, witnesses, crew limits, test sequence, and resource protection | No material collision; affects speed, coordination, and durability |
| Grounding | 5 | Uses actual actors, boats, ropes, fodder, seed, shelter labor, and uncertain structure without inventing access | No disqualifier; affects diagnosis and complication avoidance |
| Mobilization | 5 | Herders receive voice and reciprocity; stores are witnessed; safety experts retain stop authority | Dorr/Sila conflict remains real rather than assumed away |
| Adaptability | 5 | Early inspection branches, stop rules, half-provision return, and evidence-led month-end decision | No fragile central assumption is left untested |

- **Defect-sensitive power:** 0.908
- **Band:** Strong
- **Target and causal window:** 0.764, ordinarily ±0.10 inside each recorded plausible range
- **Permitted channels:** diagnostic clarity, safe completion, repair durability, household cooperation, complication severity, close contact uncertainty
- **Prohibited inferences:** no power creates a sound core, safe cattle route, Northbarrow consent, or proof that Dorr ordered the removed stone

## Actors, autonomy, and pressure

| Actor/faction | Supported response | Cost or unfinished consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Evin / river workers | Keep closure, inspect the gaps, and testify to worked stone faces | Evidence can show removal but not yet identify the order |
| Dorr / stone crews | Lead a technically serious repair and defend crew status | Witnessed inspection exposes the missing toe work and makes evasion costly |
| Sila / herders | Accept a short bounded closure because fodder accounting and a decision date are real | If cattle still lack passage, she prepares an independent route search |
| Mara / witnesses | Release measured worker grain and publish the account | Adequate stores still depend on timely grazing |
| Orra | Retain essential carpenters | Some nonurgent shelter work waits |
| Pell | Accept paired bounded travel as an adult route role | May meet only a scout or return with incomplete information |
| Oren | Prepare a witnessed labor-for-access offer | Northbarrow cannot wait indefinitely or supply unlimited workers |

## Quiet significant-conflict justification

Dorr does not openly refuse: he receives the technical lead and a path to a durable repair. His restraint is visible in guarded wording around the missing toe stones. Sila does not bypass the closure this month because she receives the fodder count, route work, witnesses, and a specific decision process. Both conflicts remain active.

## Recommended outcome

The inspection finds that recent scour is real and that several older toe stones were deliberately removed before the flood. Evin and the witnesses can distinguish worked gaps from fresh hydraulic damage, but the physical evidence alone does not prove who ordered removal. The core is too compromised for cattle this month. A bounded crew safely strips unstable facing, recovers usable stone, rebuilds the worst load-bearing pocket, and establishes a repeatable inspection/test practice. Controlled foot and light-load passage can resume late in the month; livestock passage remains closed.

Mara's ledger and Orra's protected allocation hold. Sila's count shows the remaining fodder buys only a short further interval, so the stock route remains next month's urgent choice. Pell's bounded trip reaches a Northbarrow scout and returns with a witnessed proposal: Northbarrow will contribute a limited labor party if inspection findings, access terms, and the timetable are public. No agreement is concluded.

## Proposed transitions

| Change | Prior | Proposed | Decision needed | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crossing pressure | Moving abutment | Stabilized for light passage; closed to cattle | T001-D01 | player1 |
| Dorr knowledge conflict | Hidden order; Evin suspicion | Physical removal evidence locally observable; authorization unresolved | T001-D01 | player1 plus GM-only cause |
| Sila escalation | Demand timetable | Conditional cooperation; independent search prepared | T001-D01 | player1 |
| Oren relationship | Tentative | Direct conditional labor-for-access offer | T001-D01 | player1 / GM limits protected |

## Player-facing envelope

- **May narrate:** inspection findings, worked gaps, safe work completed, light-passage tests, continuing cattle closure, public ledger, fodder urgency, Northbarrow's limited offer.
- **Must protect:** Dorr's exact winter order unless separately established; Oren's maximum labor limit; other communities; power and GM reasoning.

## GM decisions required

T001-D01.