# Turn 001 — Player Analysis: player4 / Merehaven

**Status:** GM-only recommendation; no outcome approved

## Submission record

- **Intake:** T001-I04 — VALID; no miss; streak 0
- **Archive:** `intake/player4/turn-001/submission.md`
- **Size:** 960 words; 5,640 bytes
- **SHA-256:** `dc5e79bb3fb6d99561bdd80f8cfad602acd907ec300e5945e0451a5a4ddacf36`

## Neutral interpretation

The Net Speaker establishes a temporary representative work council, gives clean water first priority, closes one spawning inlet provisionally, restores proven processing capacity before expanding catch, repairs one boat only after the first rack, caps fishing at preservable volume, and authorizes a witnessed same-day inlet survey rather than outside travel.

## Intentions

| ID | Priority | Intended change | Method and owner | Dependencies and contingencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P4-A | Governing | Make spring allocations witnessed and revisable | Six work representatives plus leader every fifth day | Domain keepers retain immediate stop authority; spring-only duration |
| P4-B | 1 | Protect drinking water and spawning shallows | Luma closures; Neri/Luma no-net markers | Seep changes trigger immediate stop and review |
| P4-C | 2 | Restore demonstrated processing capacity | Eska small racks; Varo verifies; rescue cordage/fuel protected | Finish and inspect one rack before spreading materials |
| P4-D | 3 | Take only a preservable, safe catch | Toren chooses crews; Varo/Eska/captains can halt | Weather, boat, fuel, rack, and spoilage limits |
| P4-E | Conditional | Repair one boat and learn from inlet evidence | Cal repair after first rack; witnessed local survey | Same-day safe trip; no gear seizure, claim, or outside travel |

## Personal expertise and leadership attention

The leader uses credibility from the winter shelter and returned rescue gear to convene a temporary institution. The leader works with the first rack to learn constraints, then focuses on disputes and public tallies. Technical authority remains with Luma, Eska, Varo, Toren, Cal, and Neri.

## Intrinsic difficulty before power

| Intent | Worst defensible result | Best defensible result | Missing prerequisites / unavoidable costs / uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Water/inlet protection | Turbidity requires repeated closures and household inconvenience | Clean seep practice holds and harmful processing is separated | East wind/runoff remain external; one inlet closure cannot explain the whole run |
| Rack/catch recovery | One rack and a small catch; fuel remains binding | Several safe racks and a fully preserved measured catch | Little dry fuel and scattered cordage cap throughput |
| Boat repair | Repair waits or consumes the month's remaining spare materials | One dependable local boat returns to service | Materials are subordinate to rack and rescue needs |
| Inlet survey | Stakes/fiber documented but cause remains uncertain | Local spawning harm established through witnessed observations | Evidence cannot automatically identify who ordered the net or explain the regional cycle |

## Evidence-based scoring

| Dimension | Score | Positive evidence | Defects / effect relevance |
|---|---:|---|---|
| Direction | 5 | Water before fishing; capacity before catch; provisional closure; survey without accusation | No material ambiguity |
| Focus | 5 | First rack is the critical gate; one boat only; no outside travel; catch capped | Each secondary action supports safe preservation or evidence |
| Orchestration | 5 | Representatives, domain authorities, resource tallies, rack verification, catch separation, and stop owners form a closed loop | No material collision |
| Grounding | 5 | Uses exact damage, fuel, cordage, boats, water margins, inlet evidence, factions, and knowledge limits | No invented route or omniscience |
| Mobilization | 5 | Every material constituency gets voice without losing craft authority; costs and shares are witnessed | Toren's interest is contained through status-preserving deep-water authority, not assumed away |
| Adaptability | 5 | Fifth-day review, immediate safety stops, rack-by-rack scaling, daily capacity cap, and survey-before-message architecture | Learning feeds timely decisions |

- **Defect-sensitive power:** 1.000
- **Band:** Exceptional
- **Target and causal window:** 0.850, ordinarily ±0.10
- **Permitted channels:** cooperation, safe throughput, preservation quality, institutional uptake, evidence clarity, complication severity
- **Prohibited inferences:** no power creates dry fuel, repairs both boats, proves Toren's order, explains the full Whiteback cycle, or binds Rushhook

## Actors, autonomy, and pressure

| Actor/faction | Supported response | Cost or unfinished consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Luma / water households | Mark closures and govern clean approach | Some convenient draws remain unavailable after east wind |
| Eska / reed crews | Build distributed racks with protected cordage | Damp-shelter work competes with later racks |
| Varo | Set a binding demonstrated processing cap | Catch remains below what Toren's crews could physically land |
| Toren / senior nets | Lead bounded deep-water fishing and retain status | Resents inlet closure and tries to narrow the survey's interpretation |
| Cal / younger boats | Receive repair and recognized survey work | No prestige voyage or outside route this month |
| Neri | Make the spawning concern observable under witness | One inlet cannot prove a regional rule |
| Tovan | No trigger for direct action because no Merehaven boat reaches Rushhook | External outlet politics remain latent |

## Quiet significant-conflict justification

Toren accepts the first month's limits because senior crews still choose deep-water methods, receive preserved shares, and hold a council voice. His restraint is visible in argument over what the stakes prove and in pressure for the daily cap to rise. Cal does not make an unauthorized voyage because the plan grants him a repaired local boat and a recognized evidence-bearing role.

## Recommended outcome

Luma's closure and clean-seep order prevent a processing-driven water incident despite intermittent cloudy draws. Eska completes and Varo certifies the first small rack, then a second; the third remains partly framed because dry fuel and sound cordage—not labor alone—become the binding limits. One damaged boat returns to dependable local service after the first rack. The measured catch is smaller than Toren wanted but is fully handled, with no major spoilage and a witnessed reserve.

The same-day survey maps cut stakes, old dense-net fiber, disturbed shallows, and fewer juveniles in the affected entry than nearby comparison water. This supports a finding of local spawning harm, not collapse of the whole run and not yet the identity of the person who ordered the gear. A net worker recognizes local construction practice but avoids naming a crew. Toren argues the closure should remain temporary and accepts continued observation rather than risk a witnessed accusation.

The spring work council functions for the month and gains conditional legitimacy as a temporary coordination practice. It does not acquire permanent authority over household boats, nets, water, or stores.

## Proposed transitions

| Change | Prior | Proposed | Decision needed | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Storm pressure | Racks/boats/cordage damaged | Two racks usable; one boat repaired; remaining fuel/cordage constraint | T001-D04 | player4 |
| Food/catch | Ten careful weeks; run approaching | Modest fully preserved catch entered under witness | T001-D04 | player4 |
| Inlet evidence | Cut stakes and fiber observed | Local dense-net harm strongly supported; responsible order unresolved | T001-D04 | player4 plus GM-only truth |
| Spring council | No standing work council | Temporary functioning coordination practice; permanence undecided | T001-D04 | player4 |

## Player-facing envelope

- **May narrate:** water closures, completed capacity, safe catch, repaired boat, witnessed inlet evidence, Toren's argument, and temporary council performance.
- **Must protect:** certainty that Toren ordered the winter net; Rushhook's prior overfishing; full fish-cycle knowledge; other players; power and GM reasoning.

## GM decisions required

T001-D04.