# Turn 002 — Cross-Player Synthesis

**Status:** GM-only recommendation; completed after all four individual analyses

## Shared conditions

- **Calendar/weather:** `Y01-M02` — Mid-spring, Year 1. Strong runoff persists; upland paths are clearer; the planting window is active; first Whiteback signs appear around Longmere.
- **Regional systems:** Greywater River and crossings, Westwood and Juniper paths, Ferryend narrows, Longmere/Rushhook outlet, and the still-hidden Whiteback cycle.
- **Resolution order:** Local food, safety, and capacity gates resolve before conditional travel. All outside reports arrive too late to alter another player’s Turn 002 action.

## Interaction matrix

| ID | Players/NPCs | Place/system | Intentions and initiatives | Causal order | Integrated outcome range | Disclosure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T002-X01 | player1, Oren | Ridgeford / Northbarrow routes | Ridgeford offers certified passage terms; Oren needs Ford Meadow and protects access leverage | Ridgeford route test and rebuild plan before compacted work | Conditional compact and unnamed downstream pottery rumor; no player contact | player1 only |
| T002-X02 | player2, Ava | Hazelstead / Juniper path | Hazelstead requests guidance after boundary and planting gates; Ava protects mast, bee trees, and path custom | Boundary walk before visit; Ava’s report returns late | Contact and later path-walk request; Ridgeford identified only as a ford settlement | player2 only |
| T002-X03 | player3, Seln | Claybank / Ferryend narrows | Claybank offers three jars for one service; Seln preserves per-use leverage | Fields and trial before travel | One witnessed crossing; Merehaven named only by fishing reputation | player3 only |
| T002-X04 | player4, Tovan | Longmere / Rushhook outlet | Merehaven requests reciprocal observation; Tovan protects outlet authority | Fuel, rack, and first inlet observation before voyage | Direct AI-community contact and bounded outlet information; no upper-player fact | player4 only |
| T002-X05 | all | Witnessed bounded authority | Each player voluntarily repeats counts, domain vetoes, temporary rules, or reviewable representation | Local and independent | Two-turn attractor hypothesis strengthens; no shared recognition or mechanical effect | GM only |

## Direct player interaction check

No player directs action toward another player settlement, and no two submissions compete for the same person, crew, store, route segment, or site during the month. No direct player contact, exchange, conflict, or combined scene is supported.

The new name/rumor carriers are information opportunities only:

- player2 may hear `Ridgeford` from Ava as the eastern stone-ford settlement;
- player3 may hear `Merehaven` from Seln as a lake fishing settlement;
- player1 may hear only an unconfirmed rumor of a large downstream pottery settlement from Oren;
- player4’s Rushhook contact supplies no player-settlement identity.

None of these carriers knows or conveys another player’s submission, current private condition, or hidden state.

## Shared affected actors

| Actor/faction | Affected by | Knowledge boundary | Motive/trigger | Cross-player significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oren / Northbarrow | player1 | Public Ridgeford crossing terms; rumor of pottery downstream | Fodder horizon and witnessed access | Potential Ford Meadow and downstream carrier in Turn 003 |
| Ava / Juniper Fold | player2 | Hazelstead visit; prior knowledge of the ford settlement only | Protect path, mast, bee trees | Establishes player2’s first player-clan name carrier |
| Seln / Ferryend | player3 | Claybank’s three-jar offer; Merehaven reputation only | Preserve service leverage and obtain vessels | Establishes player3’s first player-clan name carrier |
| Tovan / Rushhook | player4 | Merehaven delegation and local questions only | Protect outlet catch and resist unilateral restrictions | Creates later route to lake timing and Ferryend carriers |

## Shared-world agency sequence

| Beat | Prior state | Autonomous action | Collision/response | Leadership influence | Unresolved consequence |
|---:|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strong runoff and finite food/fuel margins | Domain authorities enforce route, soil, ground, body, water, and capacity vetoes | No veto is overridden by title | Strong plans keep failures bounded and visible | Western crossing, wet field edge, kiln quarter, and fuel scarcity persist |
| 2 | Concealed local responsibility in three communities | Dorr and Rusk defend emergency/technical decisions; Beren defends marking authority; Toren disputes scope without confessing | Witnessed procedures reveal Dorr, Beren, and Rusk actions; Toren’s authorship remains hidden because no crew inquiry supports it | Status-preserving procedures increase candor without universal harmony | Restitution, clearing authority, kiln accountability, and net authorship remain live |
| 3 | AI offers or routes are available | Oren, Ava, Seln, and Tovan respond from constituency interests | Each player accepts only a bounded, conditional interaction | High-quality terms improve clarity, not automatic consent | Future path, crossing, ferry, and seasonal-fish terms remain open |
| 4 | Players begin without player-clan knowledge | Ava and Seln transmit only prior general knowledge; Oren transmits rumor; Tovan transmits outlet observations | Reports arrive after local actions | No same-turn strategy changes | Several optional Turn 003 convergence paths become plausible |

## Information propagation

| Fact | Source | Carrier/path | Recipient | Timing | Epistemic status | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ridgeford is a stone-ford settlement east of the wood | Ava’s prior knowledge | Ava → Hazelstead delegation → leader-hazelstead | player2 | Late Turn 002 | REPORTED / CONFIRMED identity, no condition | player2 |
| Merehaven is a lake fishing settlement known by reputation | Seln’s prior knowledge | Seln → Venn and Miri → leader-claybank | player3 | Late Turn 002 | REPORTED / TENTATIVE reputation | player3 |
| A large pottery settlement is rumored downstream | Oren’s rumor | Oren → Ridgeford meeting witnesses → leader-ridgeford | player1 | Late Turn 002 | RUMORED / TENTATIVE, unnamed | player1 |
| Pale-backed fish appear first near the outlet before spreading through lake waters | Tovan’s fragmentary observation | Tovan → Cal/Neri delegation → leader-merehaven | player4 | Late Turn 002 | REPORTED / TENTATIVE regional inference | player4 |

## Contact and convergence opportunities

| Opportunity | Established carrier/route/timing | Players able to act | Refusal branch | Optional outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juniper east path | Ava’s witnessed path request after Turn 002 | player2; potentially player1 later | Either settlement can decline path work | Indirect message, boundary witness, or future meeting |
| Ferryend–lake chain | Seln knows Claybank and Merehaven by reputation | player3; potentially player4 through later Ferryend contact | Each can keep exchange local | Messages, route comparison, or eventual boat contact |
| Ford Meadow / downstream rumor | Oren’s cattle network and unnamed pottery rumor | player1; potentially player3 later | Compact can stay local or fail certification | Shared meadow, river carrier, or continued isolation |
| Rushhook observation chain | Cal/Neri contact Tovan at outlet | player4; potentially Ferryend later | Merehaven can refuse seasonal terms | Reciprocal fish observation or conflict |

## Attractor evidence

| Hypothesis | Voluntary investments | Participants | Recognition/comparison | Missing evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Witnessed bounded authority increases legitimate coordination | All four repeat public accounts, specific domain vetoes, temporary/reviewable rules, and evidence before sanction across Turns 001–002 | player1–player4 independently | Local actors respond and institutions begin to persist | No cross-community recognition, comparison, dependency, or conflict; no basis for a mechanical rule or victory condition |

This is now a credible two-turn observation, not an active rule. Reassess after Turn 003 as the charter requires. Do not apply a bonus.

## Rule, victory, and elimination review

- **Emergent rule activation:** None recommended.
- **Victory proposal:** None. The two-turn practice lacks cross-community recognition and meaningful comparison.
- **Elimination:** None proposed; no leader faces loss of control.
- **Direct player contact:** None.

## Integrated recommendation

Approve T002-D01 through T002-D04 as the four outcome packages. Apply the information carriers only after local resolution and only within each named player’s knowledge envelope. Record the repeated witnessed-authority pattern as GM-only attractor evidence for the post-Turn-003 review, with no mechanical effect.