# Turn 002 — Player Analysis: player2 / Hazelstead

**Status:** GM-only recommendation; no fictional outcome approved

## Submission record

- **Intake:** T002-I02 — VALID
- **Archive:** `campaign/instances/greywater-reach-01/turns/turn-002/intake/player2/turn-002/submission.md`
- **Words / bytes / SHA-256:** 1,176 / 7,259 / `2d81214caa5e25bad528d703f2219a785167ac740f4fe1233ffd22c6064b5bad`
- **Miss / streak:** No / 0

## Neutral interpretation

The leader protects Hazelstead's food position through witnessed seed allocation, conservative planting, a separate mixed-lot trial, and spring-safe drainage. Lio's recovery and route knowledge are handled without overloading his ankle or the reduced hunting group. A joint boundary walk and household hearing preserve cutter work while establishing temporary custody of disputed grove trees. Only after food and boundary work stabilize may a paired delegation seek a listening relationship with Juniper Fold without offering reserve seed, timber rights, labor, or exclusivity.

## Intentions

| ID | Priority | Intended change | Method | People/resources | Dependencies | Contingencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2-I1 | 1 | Plant the best-confirmed seed while retaining a real reserve | Witnessed lot allocation, workable-plot priority, isolated comparison patch | Nessa, witnesses, Ilya, garden households | Planting window and maintained approaches | Stop spoiled lots; preserve reserve; report emergence and water damage |
| P2-I2 | 2 | Put disputed grove trees under legitimate temporary custody | Joint boundary walk, visible record, limited household hearing | Beren, Ilya, cutters, garden household, spring keeper, witnesses | Safe walking day; parties retain standing | No-cut boundary; approved regrowth work; later clearing decision |
| P2-I3 | Supporting | Maintain drainage, care, hunting continuity, and shared route knowledge | Bounded connections, ankle limits, familiar-route rotation, oral route transfer | Tamm, Lio, Corren, younger hunter | Care needs and wet ground | Stop spring-harming work; no unfamiliar wet-route hunting |
| P2-I4 | Conditional | Establish respectful Juniper Fold contact | Paired daylight listening visit and nonessential gift | Trusted household representative, path-knower | Boundary and planting gates complete; clear path/weather | Abort for boundary conflict, bad weather, or unclear path |

## Personal expertise and leadership attention

The submission claims no new personal technical expertise. The leader concentrates on allocation legitimacy, the grove hearing, and receiving the contact report. Ordinary method remains with Nessa, Ilya, Tamm, Corren, and the boundary walkers.

## Intrinsic difficulty before power

| Intent | Worst defensible result | Best defensible result | Missing prerequisites | Unavoidable costs | External uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed and planting | Planting is partial under rain; mixed patch fails; reserve must cover later loss | Sound lots are planted in workable ground, reserve stays dry, and the comparison patch yields clear early evidence | No mature crop can exist this turn; sound seed volume is reduced | Lost seed, planting labor, reduced margin | Runoff, emergence, animals, plot wetness |
| Grove custody | Beren disputes the record and hearing yields only a standstill | Witnesses establish the marked line and Beren's instruction while preserving a narrow cutter role | Custom does not automatically answer future clearing needs | Political status conflict and delayed new ground | Cutter testimony and boundary interpretation |
| Care and drainage | Hunting output falls and broad wet areas persist | Lio heals without setback; route knowledge transfers; essential approaches remain usable | Lio cannot hunt this month | Reduced hunting, care labor | Rain and ankle recovery |
| Juniper contact | Visit aborts or returns with only polite acknowledgement | Ava accepts contact, requests a later witnessed path walk, and identifies the ford settlement east of the wood | No trade surplus or authority over boundary custom | Courtesy gift and two travelers' day | Ava's response and path conditions |

## Evidence-based scoring

| Dimension | Score | Positive evidence | Defects/disqualifiers | Effect relevance |
|---|---:|---|---|---|
| Direction | 5 | Food and grove custody have explicit aims, limits, and decision rights | No contradiction | Produces consistent household explanations |
| Focus | 4 | Planting first; boundary second; contact gated last | Planting, drainage, care, hunting, hearing, and contact still span several work fronts | Good protection of critical path with some breadth |
| Orchestration | 5 | Named owners, witnessed handoffs, stop rights, protected reserve, sequenced visit, and report-back | No critical role or capacity collision | Supports planting quality and legitimate custody |
| Grounding | 5 | Uses exact lot status, Lio's injury, prior drainage, disputed marks, protected springs, familiar Juniper approach, and knowledge limits | No invented seed, certainty, or route | Improves close planting, testimony, and contact questions |
| Mobilization | 5 | Gives cutters useful work and a chosen witness, protects household voice, avoids scapegoating, and offers Ava respect without desperate promises | Does not presume harmony | Preserves initiative through an authority dispute |
| Adaptability | 5 | Lot stop rules, comparison patch, spring veto, injury limits, temporary boundary, and contact abort conditions | No fragile assumption left untested | Keeps food and trust goals intact across failure branches |

- **Power:** 0.908
- **Band:** Strong
- **Target / ordinary window:** 0.764 / 0.664–0.864
- **Permitted effect channels:** planting completion and separation quality; legitimacy of temporary boundary; cooperation and testimony; care continuity; contact clarity.
- **Prohibited inferences:** no mature harvest; no automatic recovery of lost seed; no certainty about custom beyond witnesses; no Juniper concession; no player-private information through Ava.

## Affected actors and autonomous action

| Actor/faction | Interest and knowledge | Supported action | Containment or leverage | Unfinished consequence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nessa / garden households | Viable seed and fair allocation | Protects the raised reserve and rejects mixing; records a patch-by-patch start | Final lot authority and public allocation | Food margin remains reduced |
| Ilya / coppice crafts | Protected regrowth and boundary custom | Maps the line and supports temporary custody | Joint walk and later decision | Wants a standing managed-boundary role |
| Beren / cutters | Preserve cutting authority; knows he ordered marks | Cooperates defensively, then admits the marks were his proposed clearing line while denying that marking equals felling | No humiliation, useful regrowth work, cutter witness | Authority over new clearing remains contested |
| Tamm / Corren / Lio | Healing, clean springs, hunting continuity | Enforces no weight-bearing; transfers route knowledge; maintains modest familiar hunting | Technical care authority and explicit ceiling | Hunting output remains lower |
| Ava / Juniper Fold | Preserve path, mast, juniper, and bee trees | Receives the delegation, offers a small honey return gift, and requests a later witnessed path-and-tree walk | No rights or reserve goods conceded | Seasonal path terms remain open |

## Quiet significant-conflict justification

| Conflict | Cause of restraint | Observable sign | Next plausible action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beren versus Ilya | Temporary boundary preserves useful cutter work and makes the evidence public without stripping all authority | Beren acknowledges his marked line but contests permanent limits | Formal clearing and path-custom decision |
| Garden households versus stronger labor households | Witnessed allocation follows viable plots rather than labor leverage | Reserve and lot record remain publicly visible | Emergence failure could reopen allocation |
| Hazelstead versus Juniper path interests | Listening visit offers no timber or path claim and recognizes custom as unresolved | Ava requests a joint walk rather than withdrawing guidance | Seasonal path and bee-tree markers |

## Recommended outcome

Approve T002-D02 as follows:

1. Most sound seed is planted in the workable plots during the mid-spring window and a smaller protected reserve remains dry. The isolated mixed-lot patch emerges thinly and unevenly, confirming that it cannot be treated as sound reserve. Broad wet ground remains, but essential approaches and spring-safe connections hold.
2. Lio heals without setback and does not hunt. His account gives Corren and a younger hunter a repeatable route and shelter sequence; the reduced familiar-route rotation returns modest food but does not replace Lio's capacity.
3. The joint walk records the customary boundary, fresh line, bee trees, windbreak, and lack of actual cutting. Separate cutter testimony corroborates that Beren ordered the fresh marks as a proposed clearing line. Beren does not lose office; the hearing adopts a temporary no-cut boundary and mixed witness custody while approved regrowth work continues.
4. The gated Juniper visit occurs. Ava welcomes the restraint around marked trees, offers a small honey return gift, and requests a later witnessed path-and-tree walk. She states that the eastern path reaches a stone ford settlement known as Ridgeford, but carries no Ridgeford private condition.

## Proposed state transitions

| Change ID | Subject | Prior | Proposed | Decision | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T002-P2-SC01 | P-HAZELSTEAD-SEED | Reduced planting margin; mixed seed uncertain | Sound planting substantially complete; reserve retained; mixed patch weak | T002-D02 | player2 |
| T002-P2-SC02 | F-HAZELSTEAD-T001-MARKS | Authorship disputed | Beren's proposed clearing line established; no trees cut | T002-D02 | player2 |
| T002-P2-SC03 | REL-BEREN-ILYA | Defensive rivalry | Open authority dispute under temporary mixed custody | T002-D02 | player2 |
| T002-P2-SC04 | corren / Lio | Lio unable to hunt in Y01-M02 | Healing without setback; route knowledge shared; reduced hunt maintained | T002-D02 | player2 |
| T002-P2-SC05 | REL-ILYA-AVA | Potentially compatible; no meeting | Indirect contact established through Hazelstead delegation; witnessed walk requested | T002-D02 | player2 |
| T002-P2-SC06 | Ridgeford knowledge | No player-clan knowledge | Reported existence/name of the eastern stone-ford settlement via Ava | T002-D02 | player2 |

## Propagation and player-facing envelope

- **May narrate:** planting and reserve status; weak mixed patch; Lio recovery/route transfer; Beren's established marking instruction; temporary grove custody; Ava's gift/request; Ridgeford's name and general ford-settlement description as Ava's report.
- **Must protect:** Ridgeford's crossing condition, submission, politics, and resources; Ava's hidden strategic limits; any other player action; hidden regional topology.

## GM decisions required

- T002-D02 outcome package.
- No elimination, rule activation, victory activation, or direct player contact is proposed.