# Turn 002 — Player Analysis: player3 / Claybank

**Status:** GM-only recommendation; no fictional outcome approved

## Submission record

- **Intake:** T002-I03 — VALID
- **Archive:** `campaign/instances/greywater-reach-01/turns/turn-002/intake/player3/turn-002/submission.md`
- **Words / bytes / SHA-256:** 1,019 / 6,089 / `86678b5183fea90f411259e1df1350d414f019f4790d402d3fa758dccf4b8291`
- **Miss / streak:** No / 0

## Neutral interpretation

The leader keeps fields, injured households, and ground safety ahead of kiln prestige. The unsafe quarter remains closed. A witnessed firing account separates testimony from conclusion and produces one temporary safety rule each for vent tending, siting/runoff, and worker stop authority. A small open firing tests the upstream clay and the temporary rules without authorizing production. A shallow runoff diversion proceeds only if Hobb can keep it away from the unstable quarter. One bounded Ferryend exchange may occur after fields and trial labor are protected.

## Intentions

| ID | Priority | Intended change | Method | People/resources | Dependencies | Contingencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3-I1 | 1 | Finish only workable field ground and protect injured households | Dry-interval inspection, marked deferral, witnessed distributions | Alin, Hobb, Miri, Daia, field and kiln witnesses | Soil condition and draft capacity | Defer rather than churn; ordinary tending if still wet |
| P3-I2 | 1 | Establish a fair firing sequence and temporary safety rules | Private-first testimony, shared correction, separate observations/conclusions | Rusk, Hobb, Daia, Miri, workers, affected households | Witness willingness; closed quarter maintained | No status, food, or teaching penalty from the account alone |
| P3-I3 | 2 | Test upstream clay and safer firing practice at small scale | Matching marked pieces, open vented fire, public fuel count, recorded result | Rusk, two willing workers, Hobb, Daia, Miri | Firm dry site and one released labor day | One firing only; stop for ground, smoke, heat, or exhaustion |
| P3-I4 | Supporting | Redirect runoff safely | Stake flow path and possibly clear a shallow diversion | Hobb and small hand crew | Diversion does not threaten homes, fields, or bank | Marked plan only if unsafe |
| P3-I5 | Conditional | Complete one limited Ferryend exchange and learn the far-bank approach | Three counted jars for one witnessed return crossing or equivalent information | Venn, Miri, one punt | Fields and trial staffed; safe daylight | Refuse armed pressure, unfamiliar terms, weather, or no same-day return |

## Personal expertise and leadership attention

No new personal craft expertise is claimed. The leader protects the decision architecture: attending the firing account, approving the public fuel count, and reviewing the trial. Craft, ground, bodily safety, fields, and recordkeeping remain with distinct domain authorities.

## Intrinsic difficulty before power

| Intent | Worst defensible result | Best defensible result | Missing prerequisites | Unavoidable costs | External uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fields/care | Low field remains unplantable; reduced margin persists | A dry interval permits part or all of the marked section without soil damage | Dry-enough soil | Field labor and continued injury support | Strong runoff and local rain |
| Firing account | Testimony conflicts and confirms only uncertainty | Workers corroborate Rusk's continued firing and vent order while preserving multi-causal interpretation | Complete direct records do not exist | Potter-status conflict | Witness candor and Rusk's response |
| Trial/diversion | Clay cracks or site/fuel conditions abort; only method learning results | Small pieces fire with enough integrity to justify a larger later test; shallow diversion reduces new runoff | No production kiln; clay body and larger firing remain unproven | Scarce dry fuel and a day of skilled labor | Drying weather, open-fire control, clay variability |
| Ferryend exchange | Seln refuses three jars or safe crossing | One exact exchange occurs and Claybank gains a safe far-bank description plus bounded route knowledge | No standing passage right | Three sound jars and travel day | Runoff, Seln's leverage, same-day safety |

## Evidence-based scoring

| Dimension | Score | Positive evidence | Defects/disqualifiers | Effect relevance |
|---|---:|---|---|---|
| Direction | 5 | “Repair the ground before the kiln” governs every instruction; trial questions and non-authorizations are exact | No material ambiguity | Prevents pilot results from becoming a production claim |
| Focus | 5 | Fields and safe learning are the two priorities; rebuild, production, extraction, second firing, and standing trade are explicitly deferred | No unbounded side project | Protects field and fuel critical paths |
| Orchestration | 5 | Distinct authorities, released-hand gate, site and body vetoes, counted fuel, marked pieces, exact sequence, and reports | No collision or missing critical owner | Supports safe trial and trustworthy evidence |
| Grounding | 5 | Integrates wet field, runoff, vent evidence, injuries, scarce fuel, unproven clay, preliminary terms, and strong runoff | No invented prerequisite or certainty | Improves causal learning inside real limits |
| Mobilization | 5 | Private-first testimony, chosen witness, no automatic sanction, domain dignity, kin protection, and bounded exchange align difficult stakeholders | Does not assume Rusk's agreement on blame | Makes candor and continued craft participation credible |
| Adaptability | 5 | Soil gate, site rejection, multiple stop authorities, one-trial ceiling, diversion fallback, and travel refusal branches | No fragile assumption remains untested | Preserves learning and safety across adverse results |

- **Power:** 1.000
- **Band:** Exceptional
- **Target / ordinary window:** 0.850 / 0.750–0.950
- **Permitted effect channels:** candor and sequence clarity; trial quality; safety-rule internalization; partial field completion; diversion quality; bounded negotiation result.
- **Prohibited inferences:** no production capability; no durable kiln; no full clay-source proof; no sole-cause blame; no standing ferry right; no knowledge beyond Seln's supported report.

## Affected actors and autonomous action

| Actor/faction | Interest and knowledge | Supported action | Containment or leverage | Unfinished consequence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alin / field households | Planting and carts; wet section delayed | Releases one day of hands only after dry-ground review; plants part of the section and defers the soft edge | Explicit field priority and marked result | Lower edge remains late |
| Rusk / kiln households | Restore prestige; knows his firing order | Directs the small trial and defends the original decision; accepts temporary vent practice after testimony corroborates the order | No punishment or office loss from account alone | Accountability and standing rules remain unresolved |
| Hobb / diggers | Safe clay access; heard Rusk's order | Gives direct testimony, chooses the trial site, and lays a safe shallow runoff diversion | Ground veto and separate evidence record | Old path and quarter stay closed |
| Daia / injured kin | Prevent coercion and repeat injury | Enforces both recovery limits and formulates worker stop authority | Public rule and kin witnesses | One worker remains non-weight-bearing through most or all of the month |
| Miri | Reliable measures and public records | Produces a sequence record, fuel count, test comparison, and exact Ferryend terms | Independent observation/conclusion columns | Gains a broader institutional role |
| Seln / Ferryend | Preserve narrows leverage; needs vessels | Accepts three jars for one witnessed same-day return crossing and offers limited far-bank guidance | One-exchange ceiling and no standing promise | Future compensation remains open |

## Quiet significant-conflict justification

| Conflict | Cause of restraint | Observable sign | Next plausible action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rusk versus Hobb over collapse | Separate testimony confirms an order without making it the sole cause or stripping craft authority | Rusk accepts trial rules while disputing final causal weight | Standing firing code and accountability decision |
| Potters versus field households | Trial occurs only after Alin releases hands and uses a counted small fuel share | Fields receive labor first; no rebuild begins | Larger test will reopen fuel competition |
| Claybank versus Ferryend | Three jars buy one exact service, not a permanent concession | Both sides witness the bounded exchange | Per-crossing or vessel agreement later |

## Recommended outcome

Approve T002-D03 as follows:

1. A late dry interval allows Alin to plant most of the delayed section without churning it; the soft lower edge remains marked and deferred. Injured-household support continues. The seated worker participates briefly and voluntarily; the second worker remains non-weight-bearing for most of the month and is not assigned work.
2. The firing account corroborates that Rusk ordered the last firing continued and the vent restricted to meet the delivery promise. Hobb's testimony and worker sequence make the order public to the hearing. Rusk accepts that the decision worsened the firing but correctly resists treating it as the sole cause of the bank collapse. No sanction or office change is imposed yet.
3. The small open trial consumes the counted fuel share. Most marked pieces survive; several warp or crack. The upstream clay is credible for continued small testing, not proven for production. The open vent, dry siting, and worker-stop rules function well enough to retain for the next trial. Hobb's shallow diversion reduces fresh yard runoff without reopening the quarter.
4. Ferryend accepts the three jars for one witnessed return crossing. Venn and Miri see and record the far-bank approach and return safely. Seln mentions a lake fishing settlement called Merehaven as a source known by reputation, but discloses no Merehaven private fact and grants no standing passage.

## Proposed state transitions

| Change ID | Subject | Prior | Proposed | Decision | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T002-P3-SC01 | F-CLAYBANK-T001-PLANTING | Wettest section delayed | Most delayed ground planted; soft lower edge remains deferred | T002-D03 | player3 |
| T002-P3-SC02 | F-CLAYBANK-T001-EVIDENCE | Runoff and vent evidence; no blame verdict | Rusk's continued-firing and vent order established; causation remains shared | T002-D03 | player3 |
| T002-P3-SC03 | F-CLAYBANK-T001-CARE-CLAY | Upstream clay promising but unproven | Small trial partially succeeds; clay eligible only for further small tests | T002-D03 | player3 |
| T002-P3-SC04 | REL-HOBB-RUSK | Open technical conflict | Established decision responsibility with unresolved accountability | T002-D03 | player3 |
| T002-P3-SC05 | OB-T001-FERRYEND-TERMS | Proposed future terms | One bounded jar-for-return-crossing exchange completed; standing terms unresolved | T002-D03 | player3 |
| T002-P3-SC06 | Merehaven knowledge | No player-clan knowledge | Merehaven known by name and fishing reputation through Seln | T002-D03 | player3 |

## Propagation and player-facing envelope

- **May narrate:** field completion boundary; injury limits; corroborated firing order; multi-causal limit; test-piece results; temporary safety rules; diversion; exact one-crossing exchange; Merehaven's name and general fishing reputation as Seln's report.
- **Must protect:** Merehaven's condition, player action, council, inlet evidence, or resources; Seln's hidden dependency ceiling; Rushhook; full Whiteback cycle; any other player submission.

## GM decisions required

- T002-D03 outcome package.
- No elimination, rule activation, victory activation, or direct player contact is proposed.