# Turn 002 — Player Analysis: player4 / Merehaven

**Status:** GM-only recommendation; no fictional outcome approved

## Submission record

- **Intake:** T002-I04 — VALID
- **Archive:** `campaign/instances/greywater-reach-01/turns/turn-002/intake/player4/turn-002/submission.md`
- **Words / bytes / SHA-256:** 1,131 / 6,805 / `35e0ffeb580328bf795520516875b33a400996ab290f1c76772b3abcb4172d4f`
- **Miss / streak:** No / 0

## Neutral interpretation

The leader seeks one-month renewal of the representative council with narrower, auditable authority. Varo first establishes the real dry-fuel reserve; fuel search may increase preservation only above protected household needs. Eska and Varo condition third-rack work on cordage and fuel, while Cal converts inspection and repairs into a bounded boatcraft teaching practice. Fishing remains capped by demonstrated processing capacity; water and one damaged inlet stay protected. Only after local capacity and evidence gates may Cal lead a cautious delegation to Rushhook for reciprocal observation, without promising Merehaven's stores, labor, fish, fuel, or access.

## Intentions

| ID | Priority | Intended change | Method | People/resources | Dependencies | Contingencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P4-I1 | 1 | Make preservation capacity observable and increase it only where real | Fuel ledger, protected reserve, two bounded searches, load-by-load authorization | Varo, Eska, Cal, gathering crews | Genuinely dry material above warmth/cooking reserve | Keep catch cap; stack wet material as later reserve |
| P4-I2 | 1 | Maintain safe racks, cordage, boats, and create a boatcraft practice | Joint rack decision, condition inventory, trip checks, apprentice observers | Eska, Varo, Cal, boat captains, younger workers | Rescue cordage and essential shelter protected | Brace third rack; defer second boat unless existing capacity is lost |
| P4-I3 | Supporting | Preserve fish and water while improving local inlet evidence | Capacity-linked trips, water closure, repeated comparison observations | Toren, Varo, Luma, Neri, net worker | Safe conditions and processing allocation | Turn back; keep closure local; no accusation or gear destruction |
| P4-I4 | Institutional | Renew a narrow Spring Stewardship Council | Open representative choice, five-day tally, named burdens and alternatives | Six work groups and domain keepers | Gathering consent | One-moon expiry and review |
| P4-I5 | Conditional | Establish cautious Rushhook contact | Small witnessed same-day delegation and reciprocal observation request | Cal, Neri, council-acceptable companion, dependable boat | Fuel/rack/first observation complete; settled conditions | Turn back for weather, boundary, invitation, or unease |

## Personal expertise and leadership attention

No new personal technical expertise is claimed. The leader makes limits intelligible, protects dissenting work groups, and holds the institutional review. Fuel, construction, navigation, water, processing, and fishing decisions remain with their established authorities.

## Intrinsic difficulty before power

| Intent | Worst defensible result | Best defensible result | Missing prerequisites | Unavoidable costs | External uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel/preservation | Search finds only wet wood; cap cannot rise | A sheltered dry yield supports several additional loads while larger wet stock becomes later reserve | Little dry fuel exists; first fish signs are not the full run | Gathering labor and protected household reserve | Rain, shoreline yield, fuel quality |
| Racks/boats | Third rack and second boat remain deferred | Cordage maintenance plus modest dry fuel allow the third rack to finish without weakening rescue readiness; boat inventory becomes repeatable practice | Cordage and dry fuel remain binding | Repair materials, teaching time | Hidden wear and ownership consent |
| Inlet evidence | Observations remain noisy and local | Repeated comparisons show first fish signs and a persistent local deficit, narrowing but not proving the causal pattern | Full Whiteback cycle and authorship remain unknown | Survey time and local closure | Wind, water clarity, fish timing |
| Council | Representatives refuse renewal or scope drifts | One-moon renewal becomes a second demonstrated cycle with transparent burden decisions | No permanent mandate | Meeting time and visible political conflict | Toren's crews and household consent |
| Rushhook | Weather aborts or Tovan gives defensive generalities | Tovan accepts reciprocal observation and supplies bounded outlet timing information | No authority over Rushhook gear or catch | Travel day and hospitality | Lake conditions and Tovan's status concerns |

## Evidence-based scoring

| Dimension | Score | Positive evidence | Defects/disqualifiers | Effect relevance |
|---|---:|---|---|---|
| Direction | 5 | Capacity before catch governs fuel, racks, boats, fishing, council, and contact; limits and completion evidence are exact | No contradiction | Keeps every actor aligned on demonstrated capacity |
| Focus | 5 | Fuel is the critical path; third rack, second boat, catch, and contact are explicitly conditional; prestige travel is refused | No unbounded side project | Protects scarce cordage, fuel, and attention |
| Orchestration | 5 | Named authorities, prerequisite sequence, load-by-load gate, inventories, apprentice handoff, observation consistency, and council cadence | No capacity collision | Supports durable throughput and institutional learning |
| Grounding | 5 | Uses exact rack/boat condition, rescue cordage, little dry fuel, current catch cap, local-only evidence, Toren's status, and Rushhook route | No invented resource, consent, or regional knowledge | Improves close capacity and contact questions |
| Mobilization | 5 | Representatives may be replaced; burdens name alternatives; Toren's skill is separated from capacity limits; household ownership and captains' rights remain | Does not assume conflict disappears | Maintains voluntary initiative under continued restraint |
| Adaptability | 5 | Fuel quality distinction, reserve floor, joint rack gate, boat-loss trigger, daily capacity gate, local evidence boundary, and travel turn-back rules | No fragile assumption untested | Preserves food, safety, and contact goals across adverse conditions |

- **Power:** 1.000
- **Band:** Exceptional
- **Target / ordinary window:** 0.850 / 0.750–0.950
- **Permitted effect channels:** usable fuel yield; preservation throughput; maintenance quality; learning transfer; council durability; evidence clarity; contact quality.
- **Prohibited inferences:** no dry-fuel creation; no automatic third rack or boat; no lake-wide causal proof; no Toren culpability from local evidence; no Rushhook consent or player-clan knowledge beyond supported carriers.

## Affected actors and autonomous action

| Actor/faction | Interest and knowledge | Supported action | Containment or leverage | Unfinished consequence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varo / smokehouse households | Prevent spoilage; fuel is binding | Establishes the reserve floor and raises capacity only for proven dry yield | Public ledger and load acceptance | Full run will exceed current capacity |
| Eska / reed crews | Racks and shelter without stripping essentials | Finishes the third rack after cordage maintenance and a limited fuel yield make it useful; protects rescue line | Joint gate and shelter veto | Cordage remains thin |
| Toren / senior crews | Larger catch and senior status; knows winter-net order | Accepts a modest higher cap, publicly argues it should rise faster, and supplies experienced crews | Published capacity and retained deep-water role | Scope conflict persists; no confession |
| Cal / younger boat crews | Route and craft status | Leads inventory/apprenticeship and then the Rushhook delegation | Recognized local and contact role | Wants a continuing travel mandate |
| Neri / Luma | Spawning and water protection | Repeat comparable observations; keep closure exact and local | Evidence record and immediate water veto | Authorship and regional cycle unresolved |
| Tovan / Rushhook | Outlet catch and authority; wary of upstream restrictions | Receives the delegation, offers ordinary hospitality and a small catch gift, and agrees to compare observations while rejecting unilateral blame | No accusation or promise; reciprocal frame | May press for seasonal terms once the run strengthens |

## Quiet significant-conflict justification

| Conflict | Cause of restraint | Observable sign | Next plausible action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toren versus Varo/Luma | The cap rises modestly when demonstrated capacity rises, preserving senior fishing status without relaxing water rules | Toren's crews receive real additional loads and continue to argue publicly | Stronger-run cap and landing-allocation dispute |
| Eska versus boat ambition | Third rack and rescue cordage are jointly tested before boat work | Second boat remains secured while Cal gains a boatcraft role | Material allocation when repairs or travel expand |
| Merehaven versus Rushhook | Reciprocal observation protects Tovan from accusation and Merehaven from promises | Catch gift and exact reports replace a demand | Seasonal timing or outlet/upstream blame dispute |

## Recommended outcome

Approve T002-D04 as follows:

1. Varo's count identifies a protected household reserve and a small genuinely dry surplus from sheltered storm-cast wood. Much more gathered material is too wet and is stacked for later. The dry surplus and maintained cordage permit Eska to finish the third rack without touching rescue line. The second boat remains secured, not repaired.
2. The catch cap rises modestly for several additional loads and all accepted fish are processed. First fish signs strengthen, but this is not yet the full Whiteback run. Toren's crews retain deep-water prominence and comply while pressing publicly for a larger next-month cap.
3. Boat inventories, before/after checks, and one younger observer per regular crew complete a first repeatable teaching cycle. The Spring Stewardship Council is renewed for one moon with the submitted narrow mandate and replacement/review procedure.
4. Repeated inlet comparisons show early fish at both waters but fewer juveniles and more disturbed substrate at the damaged entry. This strengthens the conclusion that harm is local and persistent while leaving authorship and the full cycle unresolved.
5. Cal's delegation reaches Rushhook and returns safely. Tovan offers ordinary hospitality and a small catch gift, reports that pale-backed fish first appear near the outlet before spreading through the lake, and agrees to a later reciprocal comparison. He discloses no player-community fact and accepts no restriction.

## Proposed state transitions

| Change ID | Subject | Prior | Proposed | Decision | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T002-P4-SC01 | P-MEREHAVEN-STORM | Two racks/one boat usable; fuel and cordage tight | Three racks usable; one boat remains secured; modest dry surplus spent and wet reserve stacked | T002-D04 | player4 |
| T002-P4-SC02 | F-MEREHAVEN-T001-CATCH | Modest catch fully preserved | Modestly higher measured catch fully preserved; stronger run still ahead | T002-D04 | player4 |
| T002-P4-SC03 | F-MEREHAVEN-T001-INLET | Strong local harm evidence; authorship unresolved | Repeated comparison confirms persistent local deficit; authorship and regional cycle unresolved | T002-D04 | player4 |
| T002-P4-SC04 | INST-MEREHAVEN-SPRING-COUNCIL | Temporary five-day cycle | Renewed for one moon with narrow common-resource mandate and representative review | T002-D04 | player4 |
| T002-P4-SC05 | boatcraft practice | Informal repair knowledge | First inventory, check, and apprentice-observer cycle demonstrated | T002-D04 | player4 |
| T002-P4-SC06 | REL-TOVAN-MEREHAVEN | Wary and conditional, not observed | Direct reciprocal-observation contact; no agreement or restriction | T002-D04 | player4 |

## Propagation and player-facing envelope

- **May narrate:** fuel findings; third rack; second boat deferral; higher preserved catch; council renewal; boatcraft practice; repeated local evidence; Rushhook visit, gift, and limited outlet observation.
- **Must protect:** Toren's winter-net order; Rushhook's prior overfishing; full Whiteback cycle; Claybank and all other player communities; other players' actions or private state.

## GM decisions required

- T002-D04 outcome package.
- No elimination, rule activation, victory activation, or direct player contact is proposed.