# Turn 003 GM Decision Docket

**Status:** APPROVED as recommended under T003-A01 at 2026-08-05T18:03:53-04:00. This is adjudication approval only; result delivery and canonical fictional application remain unauthorized.

## Decision summary

| ID | Type | Affected | Recommendation | Elimination | Rule/victory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T003-D01 | GROUPED_REVERSIBLE | player1 | Approve as recommended | No | No |
| T003-D02 | GROUPED_REVERSIBLE | player2 | Approve as recommended | No | No |
| T003-D03 | GROUPED_REVERSIBLE | player3 | Approve as recommended | No | No |
| T003-D04 | GROUPED_REVERSIBLE | player4 | Approve as recommended | No | No |
| T003-D05 | RULE_OR_VICTORY review | all | Retain strengthened hypothesis; activate nothing | No | Review only |

No direct player contact or cross-player conflict is proposed. The highest-consequence question is T003-D05 because Turn 3 requires an attractor review, although the recommendation is deliberately nonactivating.

## T003-D05 — Turn 3 attractor review

- **Decision:** Whether the third turn of witnessed, bounded authority is now sufficient for a rule or victory candidate.
- **Established facts:** All four clans invested in witnessed or bounded authority on Turns 1 and 2. Their Turn 3 submissions repeat that investment. Separate AI communities increasingly participate in or recognize bounded procedures.
- **Recommendation:** If T003-D01–D04 are approved, retain `AT-GWR-WITNESSED-AUTHORITY` as a strengthened `HYPOTHESIS`, add Turn 3 evidence, and narrow missing evidence to cross-player comparison/dependency/conflict plus regional recognition/consequence. Apply no mechanical effect and activate no victory condition.
- **Reasoning:** Repetition and voluntary investment are strong. The charter's cross-clan comparison, shared dependency/conflict, and in-world regional consequence gates are not met.
- **Alternative A:** Promote to an uneffected `CANDIDATE`. This recognizes three-turn persistence but risks overstating the absent cross-player and regional evidence.
- **Alternative B:** Retire the hypothesis. This avoids early pattern commitment but discards unusually consistent evidence across four clans and three turns.
- **Downstream:** Retaining the hypothesis preserves a clear Turn 5 review question without changing play.
- **Privacy:** Entire attractor analysis remains GM-only.
- **Specific elimination confirmation:** Not applicable.

## T003-D01 — Ridgeford route, crossing preparation, and watch trial

- **Decision:** Degree of route/crossing progress and whether the security trial becomes a demonstrated bounded institution.
- **Affected:** player1; Sila, Dorr, Evin, Mara, Pell, Orra, Oren and associated groups.
- **Established facts:** Limited upland stock route active; western core cattle-closed; Dorr owes restitution; Northbarrow compact active; crossing ledger demonstrated; metal and skilled labor scarce.
- **Recommendation:** Maintain the seasonal route with one short wear closure; stage stone and approach work with the named Northbarrow party; keep deep work and cattle certification closed; set a specific witnessed restitution contribution; demonstrate a one-month watch-and-alarm routine plus only a few wooden staffs and two shields.
- **Reasoning:** The submission is strong, well-grounded, and carefully bounded. Intrinsic constraints still prevent cattle-safe completion or military capability.
- **Alternative A:** Demonstrate the watch but omit shields because Orra finds no spare material. This is credible if the GM wants shelter scarcity to bite harder.
- **Alternative B:** Advance crossing staging further but leave the watch only partially staffed. This emphasizes seasonal opportunity at the cost of the submitted secondary experiment.
- **Downstream:** Pell gains a renewable public role; the ledger reaches a third cycle; Northbarrow expectations sharpen; the cattle core remains a Turn 4 issue.
- **Privacy:** Claybank remains an unnamed rumor; protect Ford Meadow and Northbarrow hidden limits.
- **Specific elimination confirmation:** Not applicable.

## T003-D02 — Hazelstead crop, Juniper walk, and future-field evidence

- **Decision:** Crop/reserve result, degree of bilateral boundary clarity, and usefulness of the conditional site survey.
- **Affected:** player2; Nessa, Ilya, Beren, Tamm, Corren, Lio, Ava and relevant households.
- **Established facts:** Most sound seed planted; smaller reserve intact; mixed patch weak; Beren's marks established; temporary mixed custody active; Ava requested the walk; Lio still recovering.
- **Recommendation:** Sound lots mostly hold; one edge declines; reserve remains unspent; the walk establishes shared protected features and one unresolved strip; Hazelstead renews temporary no-cut custody; the survey identifies one unsuitable and one costly but plausible site; Lio does not return to ordinary hunting.
- **Reasoning:** Exceptional evidence design supports clarity without granting a permanent boundary, clearing, or crop success.
- **Alternative A:** Weather aborts the walk after partial observation. This preserves uncertainty but underuses the existing direct contact and strong contingencies.
- **Alternative B:** Ava accepts a temporary bilateral no-cut protocol. This is plausible but goes beyond the player's stated limit on wider arrangements without later household consideration.
- **Downstream:** Beren–Ilya rivalry becomes more evidence-based; Juniper contact deepens; future-field choice becomes concrete but unapproved.
- **Privacy:** Protect Juniper hidden route knowledge and Ridgeford's current condition.
- **Specific elimination confirmation:** Not applicable.

## T003-D03 — Claybank firing compact, clay trial, and Ferryend information

- **Decision:** Rusk's response, compact durability, second-test result, candidate-site evidence, and Ferryend route knowledge.
- **Affected:** player3; Rusk, Hobb, Daia, Alin, Miri, Venn, Seln and associated households.
- **Established facts:** Rusk's unsafe order is established but not sole cause; temporary trial safety worked once; upstream clay partly succeeded; old quarter closed; Ferryend exchange performed.
- **Recommendation:** Adopt the standing shared-firing compact; Rusk complies while disputing sole cause; count this month's firing as the first of his two review trials; produce a majority-sound but imperfect small batch; identify competing future-site tradeoffs; complete a no-promise Ferryend visit yielding announcement customs and bounded lakeward route knowledge only.
- **Reasoning:** The submission preserves expertise, creates an appeal/restoration path, and rigorously bounds technical inference.
- **Alternative A:** Rusk refuses shared inputs, so no firing occurs. This is causally credible but less likely because the plan preserves his property, teaching role, and restoration route.
- **Alternative B:** Trial succeeds more uniformly. This still cannot prove production and would reduce useful material uncertainty.
- **Downstream:** Claybank gains a standing safety institution, a sharper site dispute, and a plausible later path toward Merehaven without present contact.
- **Privacy:** Protect Merehaven's current condition, leader, council, fish system, and player action.
- **Specific elimination confirmation:** Not applicable.

## T003-D04 — Merehaven stronger-run capacity, council, boatcare, and Rushhook comparison

- **Decision:** Degree of catch increase, council renewal, boatcare maturation, and inference from reciprocal outlet evidence.
- **Affected:** player4; Toren, Varo, Luma, Eska, Cal, Neri, Tovan and associated crews.
- **Established facts:** Three racks and two boats usable; wet reserve remains; stronger run approaches; council renewed for one moon; local inlet harm persists; Rushhook observation contact exists.
- **Recommendation:** Renew the narrow council after real representative review; dry part of the reserve and preserve a larger but bounded catch; enforce one visible stop; maintain clean water; strengthen local-damage evidence without authorship; mature boatcare into multi-crew teaching and a repair list; obtain a reciprocal Rushhook report and pending comparison proposal; permit only a tentative downstream-to-upstream timing inference.
- **Reasoning:** Exceptional orchestration turns real scarcity and rivalry into testable daily decisions without inventing fuel, innocence, guilt, or agreement.
- **Alternative A:** Less fuel dries, so catch rises only modestly and political pressure intensifies. This is seasonally credible.
- **Alternative B:** Council renewal narrows further or fails. This is possible but underweighted given two successful cycles and explicit representative choice.
- **Downstream:** Toren's evidence route gains legitimacy; Cal's role deepens; the full fish cycle and culprit remain hidden; another Rushhook comparison is available.
- **Privacy:** Protect Toren's hidden winter-net order, Claybank, and the full Whiteback cycle.
- **Specific elimination confirmation:** Not applicable.

## Proposed approval language

> Approve T003-D01 through T003-D05 as recommended.

This would approve adjudication only. It would authorize drafting private results and proposed state changes, but not delivery and not canonical application of the proposed fictional outcomes.