# Turn 004 — Player Analysis: player1 / Ridgeford

**Status:** GM-only recommendation; no fictional outcome approved

## Submission record

- **Intake:** T004-I01 — VALID
- **Archive:** `campaign/instances/greywater-reach-01/turns/turn-004/intake/player1/turn-004/submission.md`
- **Words / bytes / SHA-256:** 874 / 5,674 / `3f0d840f394b56f8f758e4905c94c3a00c6a2bf0222b6bc04dafaa310749af16`
- **Miss / streak:** No / 0

## Neutral interpretation

The leader makes a safe-water crossing phase the primary project while preserving the measured stock route and limiting the renewed watch to warning, withdrawal, and witnessed access control. Evin owns environmental certification and stop authority; Dorr directs only the planned structural phase; Mara records all inputs and obligations; Sila controls route load; Pell coordinates a reviewed roster without police authority; Orra protects shelter and other prior claims on materials.

## Intentions

| ID | Priority | Intended change | Method and dependencies | Contingency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1-I1 | 1 | Complete the next cattle-safe rebuild phase when water permits | Evin certifies conditions; Dorr uses staged stone and named labor; Mara witnesses counts | If unsafe, remain above ground and preserve readiness |
| P1-I2 | 1 | Keep seasonal stock movement within demonstrated capacity | Sila records load, spacing, closures, wear, holding, and fodder | Close before loss; no widening or herd increase by assertion |
| P1-I3 | 2 | Renew the watch as a fair public-safety routine | Household-balanced roster, alarms, expert handoff, incident and burden review | Reduce or suspend sites; no pursuit, punishment, or household search |
| P1-I4 | Supporting | Maintain only usable trial equipment | Orra and Pell inspect the staffs and two shields after protected work | Repair from surplus or remove from service; no arms project |

## Intrinsic difficulty before power

| Intent | Worst defensible result | Best defensible result | Limits and costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crossing phase | A short safe interval permits only opening and stabilizing part of the planned section | The bounded structural phase is seated and survives repeated light tests | Cattle certification still requires settling and repeated tests; skilled labor and grain are consumed |
| Stock route | Warm rain or traffic forces another closure | Small groups continue with clearer load and fodder requirements | Seasonal path remains capacity-limited |
| Watch | Burden complaints outweigh its routine value | Fair scheduling and useful warning/access practice become repeatable | No military, punitive, or coercive capability |
| Equipment | Loose shield is discarded and no replacement is supportable | Existing items remain serviceable | Shelter, rope, route, and crossing claims come first |

Early summer supports falling and more stable water, but does not guarantee every workday safe. The staged material and three prior cycles make one bounded structural phase plausible; full cattle certification remains too large for the same month.

## Evidence-based scoring

| Dimension | Score | Evidence |
|---|---:|---|
| Direction | 5 | Safe crossing progress, route continuity, and limited watch authority are explicit and transmissible |
| Focus | 5 | One structural priority, one continuity requirement, and one subordinate reviewed routine |
| Orchestration | 5 | Named jurisdictions, sequencing, stop calls, records, outside roster, tests, and review |
| Grounding | 5 | Uses staged stone, current closure, compact terms, restitution, route evidence, and scarce surplus |
| Mobilization | 4 | Public credit, fair household duty, complaint review, and expert authority support participation |
| Adaptability | 5 | Unsafe-water branch, route closure, compact breach stop, alarm handoff, and equipment discard |

- **Power:** 0.908
- **Band:** Strong
- **Target / ordinary window:** 0.764 / 0.664–0.864
- **Permitted effect channels:** structural quality, safe completion, record precision, route durability, watch reliability, household internalization.
- **Prohibited inferences:** no instant cattle-safe crossing, permanent Northbarrow right, military capability, coercive visitor power, or downstream player knowledge.

## Character-agency pass

| Actor | Supported action | Unfinished consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Evin | Certifies a short safe-water interval and stops work once when footing changes | Requires settling and repeat testing before cattle certification |
| Dorr | Completes his named restitution contribution while leading the planned phase | Wants prompt certification but cannot overrule Evin |
| Sila | Keeps small groups moving and closes the soft bend briefly after warm rain | Presses for a concrete cattle-test timetable |
| Mara | Publishes exact grain, stone, labor, visitor, and duty records | Makes any later change to compact terms conspicuous |
| Oren | Supplies the named party and demands a plain progress explanation | Passage request remains earned but not yet exercisable |
| Pell | Runs a useful second watch month within the public limits | Gains a repeatable coordinator role, not independent command |
| Orra | Repairs one fastening from true scrap and rejects wider equipment work | Material expansion remains closed |

## Recommended outcome

Approve T004-D01 as follows:

1. Early summer supplies a bounded safe-water interval. Dorr's crew opens only the planned section, seats and keys the prepared stone, and withdraws safely when Evin later calls a stop. The work survives unladen and light-load checks, but requires settling and another inspection before any cattle test; the western core remains cattle-closed.
2. Dorr's recorded restitution contribution is completed and separately credited. Northbarrow's named labor performs under unchanged terms and receives a witnessed progress report. Oren's expectation of a certification timetable sharpens without creating early passage or meadow rights.
3. The upland stock route carries small groups within its demonstrated load. One warm-rain closure and a clearer holding/fodder account reinforce its seasonal limit rather than defeating it.
4. Ridgeford renews the watch for one month as a repeatable warning, message, assembly, and hosted-arrival routine. Household burden is more even; Pell remains coordinator; the watch acquires no search, punishment, pursuit, or military authority.
5. The loose shield fastening is repaired from genuine scrap and the small inventory remains usable. No new equipment or combat capability is created.

## Privacy envelope

- **May narrate:** local structural work and tests, route condition, Northbarrow labor and known compact, restitution, watch incidents and burdens, existing equipment condition.
- **Must protect:** Northbarrow hidden strategy, Ford Meadow, Claybank identity behind rumor, other submissions, hidden regional topology.

No elimination, direct player contact, rule activation, or victory activation is proposed.