# Turn 004 — Player Analysis: player2 / Hazelstead

**Status:** GM-only recommendation; no fictional outcome approved

## Submission record

- **Intake:** T004-I02 — VALID
- **Archive:** `campaign/instances/greywater-reach-01/turns/turn-004/intake/player2/turn-004/submission.md`
- **Words / bytes / SHA-256:** 967 / 6,082 / `09bfdec92bc99de66bd4c7ab9c414cea3bc955769d4d886feb6b37aea4aaf9ca`
- **Miss / streak:** No / 0

## Neutral interpretation

The leader protects and grades only produce that is actually mature, keeps the seed reserve distinct, and permits Nessa to retire the weak comparison patch. A household hearing must state the full cost of the plausible dry field and may authorize only a bounded preparatory step. After harvest staffing, the leader invites Ava to a narrow second walk over the unresolved strip without compensation, cutting, or permanent claims.

## Intentions

| ID | Priority | Intended change | Method and dependencies | Contingency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2-I1 | 1 | Protect mature produce and the sound reserve | Source-separated harvest, shared drying, witnessed acceptance, reserve gate | Isolate spoilage; retire weak work when it no longer teaches |
| P2-I2 | 2 | Make a legitimate future-field choice | Household hearing on woodland, path, labor, drainage, and seed need | Defer or authorize only bounded preparation; no permanent allocation |
| P2-I3 | Conditional | Clarify conduct on the disputed ridge strip | Narrow witnessed walk with Ava after harvest staffing | Maintain no-cut restraint if meeting fails or accusation rises |
| P2-I4 | Supporting | Preserve drainage, health, hunting, and Lio's recovery | Existing domain authorities and limited maintenance | No unsafe return or contaminated drainage |

## Intrinsic difficulty before power

| Intent | Worst defensible result | Best defensible result | Limits and costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harvest/reserve | Only early plots mature; wet weather causes some drying loss | Mature early produce is graded and stored; reserve remains intact | Early summer is not a full cereal harvest; racks and labor are finite |
| Field hearing | Rivalry produces deferral without a shared next step | A small removable coppice/access trial is authorized outside protected ground | No permanent clearing, seed surplus, or exclusive claim |
| Ridge walk | Ava cannot attend or old signs remain ambiguous | Both sides agree on immediate conduct while preserving disputed title | No permanent bilateral boundary or access right |
| Continuity | Labor competition reduces hunting and drainage work | Essential routes, homes, and care remain stable | Warm growth adds insects and water vigilance |

## Evidence-based scoring

| Dimension | Score | Evidence |
|---|---:|---|
| Direction | 5 | Honest harvest protection and a costed field decision organize the month |
| Focus | 4 | Two main priorities are clear, though harvest, hearing, diplomacy, drainage, hunting, and care create breadth |
| Orchestration | 5 | Named leads, maturity checks, source separation, hearing sequence, decision menu, and bilateral witness rules |
| Grounding | 5 | Uses the actual crop condition, reserve, weak patch, costly site, custody, and Lio limits |
| Mobilization | 4 | Burdened households and rival experts speak before decisions; no consent is presumed |
| Adaptability | 5 | Plot readiness, spoilage isolation, retirement rule, three hearing branches, stopped-walk rule, and no-cut default |

- **Power:** 0.887
- **Band:** Strong
- **Target / ordinary window:** 0.744 / 0.644–0.844
- **Permitted effect channels:** harvest quality, loss prevention, honest accounting, hearing legitimacy, conflict containment, interim diplomatic clarity.
- **Prohibited inferences:** no full harvest by calendar alone, reserve multiplication, permanent boundary, Juniper land grant, immediate broad clearing, or current Ridgeford information.

## Character-agency pass

| Actor | Supported action | Unfinished consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Nessa | Accepts mature lots separately, preserves reserve, and retires most of the weak patch after its account is useful | Protects reserve authority against shortfall pressure |
| Beren | Argues for the dry site's practicality and wins a small future-preparation path | Still lacks unilateral felling authority and resents indefinite deferral |
| Ilya | Requires exclusions and a managed-regrowth approach | Gains a bounded trial rather than a blanket veto |
| Tamm | Limits harvest labor where health or clean water would suffer | Warm-weather water and insect risks remain active |
| Ava | Accepts a second narrow walk and commits to immediate conduct, not ownership terms | Withholds permanent recognition of either account |
| Corren and Lio | Continue paired hunting and route teaching within functional limits | Lio is useful but not restored to ordinary heavy hunting |

## Recommended outcome

Approve T004-D02 as follows:

1. Several early-maturing sound plots and garden yields are brought in, source-separated, dried, and stored with only minor weather and animal loss. Most later grain remains growing; Hazelstead does not receive a fictitious full harvest. The seed reserve stays sealed and intact.
2. The mixed patch yields little and no longer justifies ordinary care. Nessa retires most of it after preserving the comparison record, freeing labor without disguising the failure.
3. The household hearing removes permanent clearing from the current month. It authorizes a small, removable coppice-management and access-marking trial near the plausible dry site, outside protected and disputed ground, with a labor ceiling and return date. Beren's expertise remains recognized; Ilya's exclusions and maintenance concerns are binding.
4. Stable travel permits the narrow walk with Ava. The parties separate agreed present conduct from unresolved title: neither side cuts or removes signs in the ridge strip, both may use the named path under observed custom, and permanent boundary or access terms remain unsettled.
5. Essential drainage, damp-home observation, paired hunting, and Lio's light route teaching continue. Warm-weather insect and water risks begin to require attention but do not become a crisis.

## Privacy envelope

- **May narrate:** actual mature produce, storage and reserve decisions, weak-patch retirement, household vote, bounded trial, witnessed conduct agreement, local care and recovery.
- **Must protect:** Ava's hidden regional knowledge or strategy beyond observed conduct, Ridgeford's current condition, other submissions, regional topology.

No elimination, direct player contact, rule activation, or victory activation is proposed.