# Turn 004 — Player Analysis: player3 / Claybank

**Status:** GM-only recommendation; no fictional outcome approved

## Submission record

- **Intake:** T004-I03 — VALID
- **Archive:** `campaign/instances/greywater-reach-01/turns/turn-004/intake/player3/turn-004/submission.md`
- **Words / bytes / SHA-256:** 856 / 5,123 / `41051f8263be2b30e2a28c1cddd9f68e1b5ed82aff1c259d83fde8ee8d6f3889`
- **Miss / streak:** No / 0

## Neutral interpretation

The leader completes the second review firing under the standing compact, ties Rusk's ordinary authority to observed compliance, selects the dry terrace for bounded preparation only, and requires a realistic rebuild proposal before construction. Field, care, and safety claims remain prior. Venn may make one ordinary Ferryend crossing but no lakeward expedition, vessel offer, or recurring promise.

## Intentions

| ID | Priority | Intended change | Method and dependencies | Contingency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3-I1 | 1 | Complete the second review firing and material test | One hand-carried batch, named tender, fuel count, stop rights, matching forms and seepage record | No repeat firing; failure returns to investigation |
| P3-I2 | 1 | Resolve Rusk's review status proportionately | Restore ordinary craft authority only after compliant second trial | Retain restrictions and withhold shared inputs after breach |
| P3-I3 | 2 | Select and prepare the safer future site | Hobb/Alin/Miri walk; brush clearing and drainage stakes only | Stop for field conflict, slumping, or runoff; no construction |
| P3-I4 | Supporting | Preserve a bounded Ferryend channel | At most one safe ordinary crossing after local release | No lakeward party, offer, standing service, or rumor treated as fact |

## Intrinsic difficulty before power

| Intent | Worst defensible result | Best defensible result | Limits and costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Second firing | Defects or a stop leave the clay unproven and Rusk restricted | A second safe, mostly sound bounded batch supports ordinary craft direction | Cannot certify food storage, bulk extraction, production, or a kiln design |
| Authority review | Rusk complies technically but the factions dispute restoration terms | Ordinary preparation and teaching authority returns under permanent shared safety limits | His hidden primary causation remains unproved publicly |
| Dry terrace | Route or drainage costs defeat preparation | Stable area, approach, and drainage line are documented and lightly cleared | No kiln, foundation, production pit, or reserve commitment |
| Ferryend | Alin withholds Venn or river conditions cancel travel | One ordinary crossing updates firsthand hazard practice | No current Merehaven facts or standing right |

## Evidence-based scoring

| Dimension | Score | Evidence |
|---|---:|---|
| Direction | 5 | Finish review, choose safe ground, and prepare a later decision without claiming industry |
| Focus | 5 | Trial and site choice dominate; Ferryend is explicitly subordinate |
| Orchestration | 5 | Field release, hand-load ceiling, named authorities, counted fuel, record design, review trigger, and site gates |
| Grounding | 5 | Uses the compact, first review trial, imperfect clay, two known sites, field priority, injuries, and Ferryend terms |
| Mobilization | 4 | Preserves Rusk's path to status while protecting workers, diggers, fields, and public witnesses |
| Adaptability | 5 | Stop rights, one-fire ceiling, success/failure branches, authority breach rule, alternative site record, and travel cancellation |

- **Power:** 0.908
- **Band:** Strong
- **Target / ordinary window:** 0.764 / 0.664–0.864
- **Permitted effect channels:** trial consistency, safety internalization, authority legitimacy, site evidence quality, preparation durability, rebuild-plan realism.
- **Prohibited inferences:** no food-safe certification, industry, bulk extraction, kiln construction, sole-cause verdict, current Merehaven knowledge, or standing ferry right.

## Character-agency pass

| Actor | Supported action | Unfinished consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Rusk | Completes the second safe review firing and regains ordinary preparation, teaching, and craft direction | Immediate vent authority remains permanently shared; he presses for rebuilding next |
| Hobb | Enforces ground and runoff stops and supports the dry terrace despite haul cost | Continues to oppose premature extraction |
| Daia | Maintains unconditional safety stops and injury limits | Recovery does not erase household claims |
| Alin | Releases only a small crew after field needs and limits access work | Future kiln labor remains conditional on the field calendar |
| Miri | Produces the decisive two-trial and site comparison record | Refuses production claims from imperfect evidence |
| Venn / Seln | Complete one ordinary witnessed crossing with no new bargain | Informational channel remains available but strategically bounded |

## Recommended outcome

Approve T004-D03 as follows:

1. The second review firing completes without a safety breach. Most matching forms remain sound and several hold water through the observation period; a minority crack, warp, or seep. The evidence supports repeatable small controlled batches, not food-storage certification, production, bulk extraction, or a kiln design.
2. Rusk's two-trial restriction ends. He regains ordinary authority over preparation, teaching, and craft direction under the standing compact, while the named tender retains immediate vent control and every worker retains an unconditional safety stop. The compact becomes ordinary shared-firing governance rather than a temporary punishment.
3. Hobb, Alin, and Miri select the dry terrace as the preferred future site. A small crew clears brush, marks the stable area and hand-load approach, and stakes a drainage line away from fields, homes, and the old quarter. No foundation, kiln wall, production pit, cart route, or extraction program begins.
4. Rusk drafts a bounded rebuild proposal naming fuel, labor days, materials, vent access, and stop authority. It remains a proposal for a later decision.
5. Venn makes one safe ordinary Ferryend crossing after local work is released. He gains only current firsthand river-hazard and arrival information; no vessel offer, debt, standing service, or lakeward journey is created.

## Privacy envelope

- **May narrate:** trial procedure and defects, Rusk's public review result, compact authority, dry-site observations and preparation, Ferryend crossing and firsthand local hazards.
- **Must protect:** Rusk's hidden primary-cause fact beyond established evidence, Seln's hidden strategy, Merehaven's current condition and actions, full Whiteback cycle, other submissions.

No elimination, direct player contact, rule activation, or victory activation is proposed.