# Turn 004 — Player Analysis: player4 / Merehaven

**Status:** GM-only recommendation; no fictional outcome approved

## Submission record

- **Intake:** T004-I04 — VALID
- **Archive:** `campaign/instances/greywater-reach-01/turns/turn-004/intake/player4/turn-004/submission.md`
- **Words / bytes / SHA-256:** 939 / 5,953 / `2a0e44e49d729be3ee87497f11d3a6102a99e479d3e7e353225e7abd6da01455`
- **Miss / streak:** No / 0

## Neutral interpretation

The leader subjects the council to another representative review and recommends a final mandate only through the active run. Daily catch remains tied to demonstrated fuel, racks, labor, and stop authority. Merehaven accepts Tovan's information-only comparison, continues the local inlet comparison without accusation, and performs only first-class reserve-boat repairs that do not consume protected shelter or rescue materials.

## Intentions

| ID | Priority | Intended change | Method and dependencies | Contingency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P4-I1 | 1 | Preserve tail-run value without exceeding capacity | Daily public capacity checks, protected fuel floor, counted loads, immediate stops | Reduce cap when run, weather, fuel, racks, or labor change |
| P4-I2 | 1 | Renew or expire the council legitimately | Representative choice, burden statements, narrow final mandate | Return work to ordinary keepers if coordination is no longer needed |
| P4-I3 | 2 | Improve shared fish-timing evidence | Invited same-day observations with Cal, Neri, companions, and council witness | Bring any non-information proposal home; infer no unobserved facts |
| P4-I4 | 2 | Advance reserve-boat repair without raiding protected work | Material triage, teaching, first-class work, Eska inspection | Keep boat secured if critical cordage or timber remains unavailable |

## Intrinsic difficulty before power

| Intent | Worst defensible result | Best defensible result | Limits and costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catch and reserve | Run weakens quickly or wet fuel forces a low cap | A final bounded pulse is preserved without crossing the protected floor | Whiteback peak is passing; fuel and labor remain finite |
| Council | Work groups decline renewal or resist burdens | One final mandate coordinates the tail of the run and sunsets by a named condition | No household property authority or permanent council legitimacy |
| Timing/inlet evidence | Weather cancels visits or observations remain noisy | Multiple matched observations strengthen the outlet-to-inlet sequence and local recovery comparison | Still no full cycle or culprit proof |
| Reserve boat | First-class materials permit only cleaning, drying, shaping, and minor patch preparation | Limited repair materially advances under inspection | Rescue cordage and shelter timber remain unavailable; no production craft |

## Evidence-based scoring

| Dimension | Score | Evidence |
|---|---:|---|
| Direction | 5 | Preserve the commons through capacity, reviewed authority, bounded knowledge, and maintenance |
| Focus | 4 | The four linked workstreams are coherent but still compete for leadership and skilled attention |
| Orchestration | 5 | Daily capacity announcements, stop holders, representative review, observation fields, delegation limits, and material classes |
| Grounding | 5 | Uses the actual fuel floor, three racks, two working boats, damaged inlet, council expiry, repair list, and Rushhook proposal |
| Mobilization | 4 | Work groups, crews, keepers, owners, and burdened labor all retain voice and stop authority |
| Adaptability | 5 | Cap resets, council expiry, proposal-return rule, evidence limits, and incomplete-repair branch preserve purpose |

- **Power:** 0.887
- **Band:** Strong
- **Target / ordinary window:** 0.744 / 0.644–0.844
- **Permitted effect channels:** preservation efficiency, council legitimacy, stop compliance, observation comparability, maintenance learning, repair progress.
- **Prohibited inferences:** no full fish cycle, Toren culpability, lake-wide authority, alliance, unilateral fishing rule, new boatbuilding capability, or knowledge of Claybank.

## Character-agency pass

| Actor | Supported action | Unfinished consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Varo | Resets the cap downward as the run weakens and protects the dry-fuel floor | Retains authority against Toren's pressure |
| Toren | Wins one higher-capacity day through a specific crew plan but accepts the later stop | Continues to contest how much evidence should constrain senior crews |
| Luma / Neri | Maintain water separation and repeat local comparisons | Local recovery evidence remains unattributed |
| Eska | Permits only noncompeting repair materials and inspects the work | Main repair remains dependent on cordage/material choice |
| Cal | Deepens multi-crew checks, carries reciprocal reports, and coordinates first-class repair steps | Gains practical status but no patrol or production authority |
| Tovan | Accepts the information exchange and offers matched timing observations, not a shared command | Remains alert to any upstream restriction proposal |

## Recommended outcome

Approve T004-D04 as follows:

1. The Whiteback run gives Merehaven one further strong interval and then weakens unevenly. Daily capacity checks permit one higher landing and later reduce acceptance before fuel or handling is breached. The catch adds a useful but bounded amount to the common reserve; household warmth, cooking, and emergency fuel remain protected.
2. The work groups renew the council for one final mandate through the active run, with an explicit sunset when the shared preservation surge ends. Representative choice and public burden statements continue; the council gains no ownership of boats, nets, stores, vessels, or sites.
3. Matched observations with Rushhook strengthen the tentative sequence from outlet observations toward Merehaven's later movement. The parties exchange information only. No alliance, access promise, fishing limit, or whole-lake rule is formed, and the full Whiteback cycle remains hidden.
4. Repeated comparison shows slight improvement in juvenile signs at the closed cut-stake entry while disturbed ground and a deficit remain. The local closure continues without accusation or gear action; Toren's hidden order is not revealed.
5. First-class reserve-boat work cleans, dries, shapes, and completes several minor repair steps, but critical cordage or competing structural material remains unavailable. The boat stays secured and unlaunched. Boatcare becomes more broadly repeatable; no new boatbuilding or patrol capability appears.

## Privacy envelope

- **May narrate:** local catch, fuel, stop decisions, council review and sunset, observed Rushhook reports, local inlet comparison, boatcare and actual repair progress.
- **Must protect:** Toren's winter-net order, full Whiteback cycle, Tovan's hidden fears beyond negotiation, Claybank identity or actions, other submissions.

No elimination, direct player contact, rule activation, or victory activation is proposed.