# Turn 005 — Player Analysis: player3 / Claybank

**Status:** GM-only recommendation; no fictional outcome approved

## Submission record

- **Intake:** T005-I03 — VALID
- **Archive:** `campaign/instances/greywater-reach-01/turns/turn-005/intake/player3/turn-005/submission.md`
- **Words / bytes / SHA-256:** 769 / 4,773 / `6470e9a70b09b965e85baba61811f15a0e3a9635c272b759ff20686f8eb106e2`
- **Miss / streak:** No / 0

## Neutral interpretation

The leader gives fields and household fuel first claim, then authorizes only a reversible terrace stage and one conditional pilot. Alin controls releases; Hobb controls ground; Rusk controls craft; the named tender controls the fire; Daia controls worker safety; Miri separates every cost. Exploration and Ferryend remain subordinate.

## Intentions and intrinsic difficulty

| Intent | Method and dependencies | Difficulty and defensible range |
|---|---|---|
| Protect field and household priority | Explicit first call, separate accounts, functional injury limits | Midsummer field strain is real but manageable under Alin's release system. |
| Make the dry terrace operationally real | Drainage, hand path, measured salvage/fuel inventory | Plausible with small hand crews; thunderstorms test drainage and interrupt work. |
| Build and fire one conditional pilot | Harvest-prep threshold, household fuel floor, reversible structure, one marked non-food batch | One small pilot is plausible if fuel dries; production, food safety, extraction, and repeat firing are not. |
| Preserve bounded travel | One optional Ferryend crossing after local release | River surges or field priority can cancel it without defeating the plan. |

## Evidence-based scoring

| Dimension | Score | Evidence |
|---|---:|---|
| Direction | 5 | Capacity after fields, not a prestige rebuild, is explicit. |
| Focus | 5 | Field priority and one staged pilot dominate; travel is clearly expendable. |
| Orchestration | 5 | Resource releases, public proposal, drainage, inventory, named stops, one-fire ceiling, and failure branch. |
| Grounding | 5 | Uses the proven compact, dry terrace, imperfect vessels, fuel limits, field carts, injuries, and closed clay path. |
| Mobilization | 4 | Rival craft, field, digger, care, and witness interests all receive real authority and public accounting. |
| Adaptability | 5 | Rain, soft ground, field recall, fuel insufficiency, failed pilot, and travel cancellation all preserve core priorities. |

- **Power:** 0.908 — Strong
- **Permitted channels:** field protection, drainage quality, honest inventory, pilot safety, teaching, and record precision.
- **Prohibited inferences:** no production kiln, food-safe vessel, bulk extraction, standing delivery, surplus fuel, or current Merehaven knowledge.

## Character-agency pass

- **Alin** sets and enforces the harvest-preparation threshold, releasing only a small hand crew and recalling it once after a storm.
- **Rusk** accepts a small pilot because it restores practical forward motion and trains a backup tender, while continuing to argue for later scale.
- **Hobb** redirects one drainage section after runoff exposes a soft edge and keeps the old clay path closed.
- **Daia** maintains injury limits and unconditional worker stops.
- **Miri** shows that household fuel plus one pilot remains possible only after damp fuel is dried; she refuses any second allowance.
- **Venn** does not receive a safe, noncompeting travel window this month; no Ferryend promise or relationship loss follows.

## Recommended outcome

Approve T005-D03:

1. Field drainage and harvest preparation keep first call on carts, animals, and hands. The separate account shows no concealed transfer from household food or injured families.
2. A small released crew maintains the terrace drainage, clears the hand-load path, and inventories usable salvage, timber, and fuel. A thunderstorm reveals one runoff weakness; Hobb redirects it without damaging the field or enlarging the site.
3. After Alin's threshold is met and damp fuel has dried, Miri verifies one pilot allowance above the protected household floor. Rusk builds a small reversible structure and trains a backup tender under the standing compact.
4. The marked non-food batch completes safely. Most pieces are sound, while several crack or fire unevenly. The pilot demonstrates one controlled batch at the dry terrace and a teachable firing routine; it does not prove food safety, regular production, bulk extraction, or a permanent kiln. No second firing occurs.
5. The optional Ferryend crossing is canceled because field release and post-storm river safety never align. Claybank gains no Merehaven knowledge and incurs no new bargain or debt.

## Privacy envelope

May narrate Claybank fields, terrace, pilot, defects, compact, injury limits, and the canceled local travel opportunity. Protect Rusk's hidden causal fact, Ferryend hidden strategy, Merehaven, the Whiteback cycle, and other submissions.

No elimination, direct player contact, victory activation, or automatic rule effect is proposed.