# Turn 006 — Player Analysis: player1 / Ridgeford

**Status:** GM-only recommendation; no fictional outcome approved

## Submission record

- **Intake:** T006-I01 — VALID
- **Archive:** `campaign/instances/greywater-reach-01/turns/turn-006/intake/player1/turn-006/submission.md`
- **Words / bytes / SHA-256:** 1,039 / 6,591 / `aecbcf6c41b1952191b3c87adaf0d7bc7418dfad60fa0916fffc643332db44ec`
- **Miss / streak:** No / 0

## Neutral interpretation

The leader honors Northbarrow's earned request through a precisely bounded first passage, preserves both crossing routes and the narrowed watch, and conditionally sends Evin, Pell, and one witness downstream to locate the rumored pottery settlement. The plan seeks durable leverage through dependable limits rather than unrestricted access.

## Intentions and intrinsic difficulty

| Intent | Method and dependencies | Difficulty and defensible range |
|---|---|---|
| Conduct Northbarrow's first passage | Witnessed schedule, smallest meaningful herd, named stop authorities, holding place, separate records | Narrow passage is supported by Turn 5 certification and late-summer conditions. A smooth mass crossing is not; balking animals, approach wear, and temporary closure remain plausible. |
| Preserve both routes and the gate | Post-use inspection, approach repair, rain-limited fallback, temporary message deputy | Demonstrated and repeatable, but heavier outside use must consume inspection and repair labor. |
| Reach the pottery settlement | Only after local gates clear; one boat, three people, three-day limit, return reserve, no strategic trade or promises | Claybank lies about 24 km downstream and is reachable in the stated limit. First contact is plausible; trade, alliance, reliable supply, or regional authority is not. |

## Evidence-based scoring

| Dimension | Score | Evidence |
|---|---:|---|
| Direction | 5 | The passage, gate reliability, and bounded reconnaissance have clear success conditions. |
| Focus | 4 | Two major sequential operations fit the month but still divide senior river and watch attention. |
| Orchestration | 5 | Named jurisdictions, schedule, herd limits, holding, inspections, deputy, boat, provisions, and return gates are integrated. |
| Grounding | 5 | Uses the exact certification, compact, approach weakness, fallback route, watch limits, and downstream rumor. |
| Mobilization | 4 | Public credit and equal safety rules support cooperation, though Ridgeford bears a demanding outside passage and expedition in one month. |
| Adaptability | 5 | Closure, holding, turn-back, route, deputy, provisioning, refusal, and no-discovery branches preserve the plan. |

- **Power:** 0.887 — Strong
- **Permitted channels:** passage discipline, complication containment, record credibility, route reliability, safe travel, and first-contact clarity.
- **Prohibited inferences:** no all-weather or mass crossing, permanent entitlement, toll sovereignty, trade right, alliance, territorial claim, or automatic trust at Claybank.

## Character-agency pass

- **Oren** accepts the same limits applied to Ridgeford because the earned request is publicly honored, then provides a voluntary route briefing after the passage.
- **Evin** closes the line for changing footing or approach movement and leads the downstream boat only after the crossing account is settled.
- **Sila** stops and regroups a balking animal rather than permitting a ceremonial rush.
- **Dorr** accepts approach repair and post-use evidence without claiming the core is all-weather.
- **Pell** selects a deputy but cannot transfer coercive authority; the downstream role advances his standing as a messenger rather than a guard captain.
- **Mara** may refuse the expedition if essential food or work cannot spare it; the established late-summer margin makes a short bounded trip plausible.

## Recommended outcome

Approve T006-D01 and T006-D05:

1. Northbarrow's smallest meaningful cattle party crosses under the published terms. A balk and a shifted approach stone cause a real stop and reset; the group completes over a longer window without animal loss, while the core remains within its tested limits.
2. The first seasonal request is performed, not converted into a right. Northbarrow receives credit, and Oren's people treat Ridgeford's enforced stop as reliability rather than breach. The relationship becomes a proven seasonal procedure with every later passage still requiring a new decision.
3. Both routes remain useful but capacity-limited. The approach consumes repair labor, and the narrowed watch's deputy performs messages and hosted arrival without searching or punishment.
4. The downstream expedition clears its gates and reaches Claybank within the three-day limit. Its first player-to-player contact is resolved separately under T006-D05.

## Opportunity costs and lasting consequences

The passage and expedition consume most senior river attention for the month. Ridgeford ends with a credible regional gate and a named downstream community, but also an exposed maintenance burden: every claimed advantage now brings inspection, hosted-arrival, and repair obligations.

## Privacy envelope

May narrate Ridgeford's passage, stops, repairs, routes, watch, what its party directly observes, and what Claybank directly tells or shows it. Protect Claybank's submission, hidden state, stores, internal causal facts, and any unobserved regional topology.

No elimination is proposed.