Turn 001 — Player Analysis: player2 / Hazelstead
Status: GM-only recommendation; no outcome approved
Submission record
- Intake: T001-I02 — VALID; no miss; streak 0
- Archive:
intake/player2/turn-001/submission.md - Size: 1,076 words; 6,529 bytes
- SHA-256:
75c06fc980c69119aa4d35d8b362be98feee6539753e72be614a54418536ee3e
Neutral interpretation
The Hearthspeaker protects and tests seed before allocation, sends a bounded search for Lio, repairs the seed-house seam, improves drainage and six damp homes, and defers permanent clearing. Nessa, Corren, Ilya, Tamm, Wen, and affected households retain method and stop authority. Beren is limited to marking necessary regrowth cuts.
Intentions
| ID | Priority | Intended change | Method and owner | Dependencies and contingencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2-A | 1 | Preserve viable seed and produce a trusted planting plan | Nessa quarantine, basket count, small germination tests; Wen roof work | Dry window; no mixing, consumption, or premature disposal |
| P2-B | 2 | Find Lio without creating a second rescue | Corren's four-person known-route search | Route/return record; weather, water, light, and injury stop rules |
| P2-C | 3 | Reduce wet-ground and damp-home harm | Ilya's minimum drainage works; Tamm's household measures | Protect springs; no broad speculative cuts |
| P2-D | Deferred | Avoid premature woodland commitment | Beren marks only necessary regrowth materials | No permanent clearing before seed and ground evidence |
Personal expertise and leadership attention
The leader uses the established witnessed-hearing practice to make the seed count credible and arbitrate labor. Technical decisions remain with Nessa, Wen, Corren, Ilya, and Tamm. Personal attention is sequential: seed opening, search departure/return, then the evidence meeting.
Intrinsic difficulty before power
| Intent | Worst defensible result | Best defensible result | Missing prerequisites / unavoidable costs / uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seed triage | Warm lower seed is lost and planting remains short | Uneven damage identified; sound reserve protected and conservatively allocated | Viability cannot be inferred before trials; drying needs weather |
| Search | Last trace found but unsafe ground prevents recovery | Lio found alive and returned without another casualty | His condition/location and storm route are uncertain |
| Drainage/homes | Only immediate threshold and bedding measures | Several plots drain better and six homes become materially drier | Wet ground, protected springs, and finite labor limit scope |
| Woodland restraint | Beren's faction treats deferral as loss of authority | Needed poles supplied without permanent damage | Existing markings and Beren's private conduct are unknown to leader |
Evidence-based scoring
| Dimension | Score | Positive evidence | Defects / effect relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direction | 5 | Protect seed and people first; explicit prohibitions and evidence gates | No material ambiguity |
| Focus | 4 | Priorities are ranked and permanent clearing deferred | Three material work fronts still divide the month |
| Orchestration | 4 | Owners, sequences, samples, search size, and household roles are strong | Weather timing and cross-crew labor capacity remain partly local |
| Grounding | 5 | Exact actors, seed condition, roof seam, wet homes, springs, trap line, and regrowth are integrated | No invented fact or hidden knowledge |
| Mobilization | 4 | Open reports, household decisions, visible help rotation, and specialist autonomy support cooperation | Beren's status interest receives a role but no direct political settlement |
| Adaptability | 5 | Germination tests, dry-window branch, search turnbacks, small drainage rule, and seed-shortage meeting preserve aims | No central uncertainty lacks a trigger |
- Defect-sensitive power: 0.865
- Band: Strong
- Target and causal window: 0.723, ordinarily ±0.10
- Permitted channels: preservation quality, search safety, diagnostic clarity, drainage completion, cooperation
- Prohibited inferences: no power restores spoiled seed, guarantees weather, creates field capacity, or supplies knowledge of Lio or Beren's marks before observation
Actors, autonomy, and pressure
| Actor/faction | Supported response | Cost or unfinished consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Nessa / gardens | Quarantine, test, and publish differentiated lots | The worst lower seed remains a real loss |
| Wen | Repair seam and add airflow work | Other carpentry waits for the dry window |
| Corren | Accept four capable searchers and return rules because Lio is a named priority | Emotional pressure persists until recovery |
| Tamm / spring keepers | Stop harmful drainage and prioritize six homes | Wider damp-ground work remains unfinished |
| Ilya / coppice | Demonstrate bounded drainage materials | May discover marks that threaten protected custom |
| Beren / cutters | Supply necessary marked poles while arguing clearing remains needed | His prior unauthorized marks create future exposure and factional risk |
| Ava | No direct action unless the search/path or marked boundary reaches Juniper Fold | A path relationship remains only a contact opportunity |
Quiet significant-conflict justification
Beren accepts a visible marking role instead of immediately calling a large cut, because permanent authority is deferred rather than publicly stripped. The conflict becomes observable when Ilya's boundary work encounters fresh protected-grove marks. Corren accepts limits because the leader elevates the search rather than treating it as secondary grief.
Recommended outcome
Nessa's inspection confirms uneven damage: the warm, sweet-smelling lower basket fails the early tests and is isolated as lost; another damp lower lot shows mixed germination; the raised baskets remain usable. Wen closes the seam during a short dry interval and improves airflow. Hazelstead can make a conservative first planting allocation while preserving a sound reserve, but it cannot replace the lost quantity.
Corren's party follows the marked trap line and finds Lio alive near storm-felled timber with a broken ankle. The party returns slowly but safely under the turnback rules; Lio cannot hunt this month. No external bargain is made.
Ilya and Tamm complete narrow, spring-safe drainage connections and immediate measures at the six damp homes. While Beren marks permitted regrowth poles, Ilya finds fresh axe marks extending into protected custom. The marks are observable; who ordered them is not yet publicly proved. Beren gives a defensive explanation and keeps his cutters cooperative for the current work, but the authority dispute advances.
Proposed transitions
| Change | Prior | Proposed | Decision needed | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed pressure | Suspected spoilage | Uneven damage established; one lower basket lost; conservative allocation possible | T001-D02 | player2 |
| Lio | Missing, exact condition hidden | Found alive with broken ankle; unavailable for hunting this month | T001-D02 | player2 |
| Damp homes/gardens | Standing water | Narrow improvements; continuing wet-ground pressure | T001-D02 | player2 |
| Protected grove | Beren's marks hidden | Marks discovered; authorship/order disputed | T001-D02 | player2 plus GM-only truth |
Player-facing envelope
- May narrate: differentiated seed results, roof/airflow repair, Lio's recovery and injury, limited drainage gains, discovery of unauthorized-looking marks and Beren's defensive response.
- Must protect: GM-only certainty that Beren ordered the marks; Ava's private strategy; other communities; scores and reasoning.
GM decisions required
T001-D02.