Turn 001 — Player Analysis: player3 / Claybank
Status: GM-only recommendation; no outcome approved
Submission record
- Intake: T001-I03 — VALID; no miss; streak 0
- Archive:
intake/player3/turn-001/submission.md - Size: 986 words; 5,824 bytes
- SHA-256:
a79e23143c35b1fe80f1365b25029c4d56f4cbd0d14101145faf6206bbc8819c
Neutral interpretation
The Kiln-Keeper gives planting and drainage first claim on carts, animals, and labor; protects food and injured workers; closes the kiln quarter; orders a witnessed safety/technical inspection and cold salvage without rebuilding; permits only a hand-sample clay inquiry; and allows a tightly gated information visit to Ferryend.
Intentions
| ID | Priority | Intended change | Method and owner | Dependencies and contingencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3-A | 1 | Complete spring planting and low-field drainage | Alin controls carts, animals, schedule, and daily labor split | Hobb stops unsafe wet-ground work |
| P3-B | 2 | Care for injuries and establish collapse evidence | Daia work limits; Hobb/Rusk inspection; Miri witnessed salvage count | No void entry, cracked-wall climbing, firing, or rebuilding |
| P3-C | Conditional | Identify a possible future clay source | Hobb two-person daylight foot inquiry; Rusk compares samples | Only spare labor; no extraction or cart |
| P3-D | Conditional | Learn Ferryend's actual service terms | Venn paired daylight visit | Falling debris/runoff, spare punt labor, no commitments |
Personal expertise and leadership attention
The leader applies proven grain-count and faction-arbitration experience to allocation and witnesses. The leader does not claim masonry, geology, healing, or navigation expertise. Personal attention is placed at the field allocation, first inspection, and public accounting.
Intrinsic difficulty before power
| Intent | Worst defensible result | Best defensible result | Missing prerequisites / unavoidable costs / uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plant/drain | Wet conditions delay one low field | Both fields drain and planting completes within the window | Weather and three-week window; labor diverted to safety work |
| Inspect/salvage | Quarter remains closed with little recovery | Safe outer salvage and strong causal evidence | Structure is unstable; inspection cannot guarantee full cause or rebuild |
| Clay inquiry | No safe exposure or inconclusive sample | Accessible promising sample for later test | Sample is not proof of production suitability |
| Ferryend | Visit deferred or yields guarded terms | Safe contact and bounded service offer | Runoff, external consent, and unknown terms |
Evidence-based scoring
| Dimension | Score | Positive evidence | Defects / effect relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direction | 5 | Planting governs; no rebuild/firing; evidence is not blame; inquiry is not extraction | Crisp compatible boundaries |
| Focus | 5 | Carts and animals remain on the critical field window; all other work is gated or deferred | No unbounded side project |
| Orchestration | 5 | Owners, sequence, witnesses, shared-resource priority, injury limits, and conditional travel align | No capacity collision |
| Grounding | 5 | Uses actual people, fuel scarcity, eroding bank, punts, injuries, planting, and knowledge limits | No hidden fact presumed |
| Mobilization | 4 | Field, kiln, digger, and injury constituencies receive roles, witnesses, and protected interests | Rusk's prestige and incentive to suppress evidence remain only procedurally contained |
| Adaptability | 5 | Safety stops, spare-labor gates, no-rebuild branch, sample-only inquiry, and trip conditions preserve priorities | No central fragile assumption |
- Defect-sensitive power: 0.908
- Band: Strong
- Target and causal window: 0.764, ordinarily ±0.10
- Permitted channels: planting completion, inspection quality, safe salvage, evidence clarity, cooperation, close travel uncertainty
- Prohibited inferences: no power makes the bank stable, proves clay suitable, restores the kiln, erases injury, or compels Ferryend terms
Actors, autonomy, and pressure
| Actor/faction | Supported response | Cost or unfinished consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Alin / fields | Retain carts and complete the planting schedule | Kiln households wait and resent the priority |
| Hobb / diggers | Enforce the path closure, inspect runoff, and test upstream clay | May move from private doubt to witnessed testimony |
| Daia / injured kin | Maintain one seated-work option and one full no-work limit | One worker remains unable to bear weight through next turn |
| Rusk / kiln households | Supply technical interpretation and preserve molds | Visible vent evidence threatens prestige; Rusk argues alternative causes |
| Miri | Create independent counts of stores and salvage | Measure authority begins to grow outside Rusk's control |
| Venn | Accept bounded reconnaissance | Ferryend may offer service on terms rather than concede route control |
| Seln | Offer witnessed per-crossing arrangements | Keeps exact needs and route leverage private |
Quiet significant-conflict justification
Rusk does not openly split the kiln households because the submission protects vessels, molds, future rebuilding, and a technical hearing. He selectively emphasizes wet clay and bank movement. Hobb accepts restraint because he controls site safety and receives a separate evidence channel. Their conflict becomes sharper without being falsely resolved.
Recommended outcome
Alin preserves the planting window. Drain clearing and sowing complete across most workable ground; the wettest part of one low field remains delayed rather than being forced. Food distributions remain steady and witnessed.
The outer inspection and cold salvage recover usable vessels and brick without another injury. Runoff observation exposes a drainage cut from the kiln yard feeding the slump. The broken vent area and soot pattern support Hobb's account that the final firing continued with a restricted vent, but the evidence does not by itself prove Rusk's private order. Rusk disputes causal weight and argues that wet ground was decisive. No blame verdict is issued and no rebuild begins.
The upstream hand samples are accessible and promising enough for a later small firing test, not enough to call the source suitable. If runoff falls late in the month, Venn reaches Ferryend and returns with Seln's preliminary terms: future crossings should be witnessed and compensated by labor or useful goods; Ferryend is interested in replacement vessels but makes no standing agreement.
Proposed transitions
| Change | Prior | Proposed | Decision needed | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planting | Urgent three-week window | Mostly completed; wettest section delayed | T001-D03 | player3 |
| Kiln pressure | Collapse cause unresolved | Safe outer salvage; drainage and vent evidence established; no verdict | T001-D03 | player3 plus GM-only exact order |
| Injuries | Two workers injured | One seated option; one non-weight-bearing through next turn | T001-D03 | player3 |
| Clay source | Rumor/possibility | Accessible sample is promising but unproven | T001-D03 | player3 |
| Ferryend | Venn knows it exists | Preliminary witnessed service terms and vessel interest | T001-D03 | player3; Seln's hidden limit protected |
Player-facing envelope
- May narrate: field progress, safe salvage, drainage-cut and vent evidence, Rusk/Hobb disagreement, injury limits, sample uncertainty, and any preliminary Ferryend terms.
- Must protect: certainty that Rusk ordered the rushed firing; Ferryend's inability to sustain a pottery boycott; other players; power and GM reasoning.
GM decisions required
T001-D03.