Turn 003 — Player Analysis: player2 / Hazelstead
Status: GM-only recommendation; no fictional outcome approved
Submission record
- Intake: T003-I02 — VALID
- Archive:
campaign/instances/greywater-reach-01/turns/turn-003/intake/player2/turn-003/submission.md - Words / bytes / SHA-256: 1,197 / 7,483 /
5e479ae734c8c8574ce140fd1d11ced30490e7b8676dacd375f65a26a3a4fb51 - Miss / streak: No / 0
Neutral interpretation
The leader protects the emerged crop and reserve through a witnessed plot record and a strict replacement-seed gate. Hazelstead accepts Ava's witnessed path-and-tree walk but limits it to shared observation and an internal temporary ruling. Beren may later survey up to two future-field sites only outside customary or disputed ground. Hunting knowledge is transferred without forcing Lio back before Tamm clears him.
Intentions
| ID | Priority | Intended change | Method | People/resources | Dependencies | Contingencies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2-I1 | 1 | Preserve current crop and next planting reserve | Plot record, ordinary care, reserve-release test, witness hearing | Nessa, Ilya, Tamm, garden households | Visible failure with contained cause and viable replanting window | Conserve reserve; record loss honestly |
| P2-I2 | 1 | Replace the disputed marking line with a durable shared record | Witnessed walk, no new cutting, agreement/difference account, household hearing | Ava's party, Beren, Ilya, mixed witnesses | Safe weather and mutually heard route | Any witness may stop; no conclusion from an aborted walk |
| P2-I3 | Conditional | Learn the true tradeoffs of future dry fields | Survey at most two clearly undisputed sites without felling | Beren, Ilya, garden and witness representatives | Crop watch functioning; walk completed or safely deferred | No clearing decision or permanent marks |
| P2-I4 | Supporting | Preserve safe local hunting knowledge | Recovery limits, paired familiar routes, route-and-shelter account | Tamm, Corren, Lio, younger hunter | Lio's body and familiar-route coverage | No premature hunting return |
Personal expertise and leadership attention
No new technical expertise is claimed. The leader attends the decision points—first crop review, returning walk, and hearing—while named actors choose methods. Attention is focused on evidence, limits, and legitimacy rather than direct production.
Intrinsic difficulty before power
| Intent | Worst defensible result | Best defensible result | Missing prerequisites | Unavoidable costs | External uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crop/reserve | Wet or damaged plots decline and no useful replant window remains | Sound lots stabilize, weak lots are honestly classified, reserve remains protected | No large dry field; mixed patch is weak | Weeding, guarding, channels, monitoring | Late-spring rain, animals, emergence quality |
| Witnessed walk | Weather or a route dispute stops the walk without conclusion | Both communities agree on several protected features and isolate one exact unresolved strip | No authority for permanent bilateral boundary | Travel and political attention | Ava's witnesses, Beren's status defense, old signs |
| Future-site survey | Both sites prove costly, wet, customary, or uncertain | One plausible dry site is documented with full woodland and labor cost | No clearing permission or surplus seed | Survey time and political cost | Soil after rain and neighboring custom |
| Hunting/recovery | Familiar coverage remains reduced | Route knowledge becomes more reproducible and Lio resumes only safe mobility | Healing is not complete by command | Paired hunting labor | Lio's recovery |
Evidence-based scoring
| Dimension | Score | Evidence | Defects/disqualifiers | Effect relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direction | 5 | Honest crop evidence and durable boundary evidence govern every branch | None | Clear result definition across actors |
| Focus | 5 | Crop and walk are the two priorities; survey is conditional and creates no clearing | None | Protects labor and decision quality |
| Orchestration | 5 | Named leads, reserve criteria, joint party composition, witness stop authority, sequence, and hearings | None | Supports reliable evidence and legitimate containment |
| Grounding | 5 | Uses the exact reserve, weak patch, wet-ground limits, Lio recovery, disputed marks, temporary custody, and Ava request | None | Prevents invented land or seed capacity |
| Mobilization | 5 | Includes both rival authorities, garden and approach constituencies, Ava's chosen witnesses, and household consent | Does not assume agreement | Makes candor and restraint credible |
| Adaptability | 5 | Heavy-rain checks, reserve gate, stopped-walk rule, no-cut default, removable survey marks, and conditional sequencing | None | Preserves purpose under crop or diplomatic failure |
- Power: 1.000
- Band: Exceptional
- Target / ordinary window: 0.850 / 0.750–0.950
- Permitted effect channels: crop observation quality; reserve discipline; walk clarity; conflict containment; survey usefulness; knowledge transfer.
- Prohibited inferences: no guaranteed crop yield; no reserve multiplication; no permanent bilateral boundary; no Juniper consent beyond observed points; no clearing authorization; no player-community details beyond supported carriers.
Character-agency and dramatic-pressure pass
| Actor/faction | Supported action | Containment or leverage | Unfinished consequence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nessa / garden households | Maintains the reserve and classifies a visibly failing low patch without spending seed | Three-condition release rule and witnesses | Some loss is accepted rather than hidden |
| Ilya / coppice crafts | Leads protected-feature recording and refuses permanent lines from uncertain signs | Co-custody and Ava relationship | Seeks a later durable woodland practice |
| Beren / cutters | Participates, points out old cutting use, and defends marking as customary preparation | Equal presence, no solo voice, no cutting | Retains status but not unilateral clearing authority |
| Ava / Juniper Fold | Brings her own path witnesses and accepts a shared record only for observed features | No permanent bargain and mutual stop rule | Withholds broader route guidance until Hazelstead decides what it will honor |
| Tamm / Corren / Lio | Tamm keeps recovery limits; Corren uses transferred knowledge; Lio contributes without hunting | Healer authority and paired routes | Hunting coverage remains reduced but safer |
The Beren–Ilya dispute is materially engaged, not erased. Restraint is supported by equal inclusion, the explicit ban on new marks, Ava's witnesses, and the fact that the hearing cannot grant Beren a clearing decision.
Recommended outcome
Approve T003-D02 as follows:
- The plot record shows the sound-seed lots generally holding while one wet or damaged edge declines. The mixed patch remains visibly weaker and is no longer treated as a likely equal crop. The reserve-release conditions are not jointly met within a useful window, so the smaller sound reserve remains dry and intact rather than being used to disguise loss.
- The witnessed walk occurs. Hazelstead and Juniper Fold agree on the main path, several bee trees and juniper stands, and a no-cut behavior around them. They isolate a narrower ridge-side strip where old use signs and the proposed clearing line conflict. No permanent boundary, compensation, or access agreement is made; Hazelstead renews its own temporary no-cut custody around the unresolved strip.
- Beren and Ilya both remain inside the process. Beren's customary cutting knowledge is recognized, but his marked line gains no authority. Ilya's protected-regrowth case gains specific evidence rather than blanket control.
- A bounded future-site survey identifies one clearly unsuitable wet or access-heavy site and one potentially workable dry site whose timber, regrowth, path, and labor costs are substantial. It creates a later household choice, not permission to clear.
- Lio continues improving and contributes route knowledge, but Tamm does not return him to ordinary hunting this month. Familiar-route hunting remains reduced and better recorded.
Proposed transition envelope
- Update
P-HAZELSTEAD-SEEDwith sound-lot condition, preserved reserve, weak comparison conclusion, and a narrowed boundary uncertainty. - Extend temporary mixed custody into a documented Hazelstead no-cut practice pending any later bilateral decision.
- Update
REL-ILYA-AVAto direct witnessed cooperation with unresolved permanent terms. - Update Beren–Ilya stance from open authority dispute to contained evidence-based rivalry under shared custody, without declaring harmony.
- Record future-field survey evidence without creating a place claim or clearing capability.
Privacy envelope
- May narrate: plot observations; reserve decision; Lio's functional recovery; walk participants and observed agreements/disagreements; internal hearing; survey tradeoffs.
- Must protect: Juniper Fold's hidden route knowledge and fears beyond observable conduct; Ridgeford's current condition; other submissions; regional topology.
No elimination, direct player contact, rule activation, or victory activation is proposed.