Turn 002 — Cross-Player Synthesis

Status: GM-only recommendation; completed after all four individual analyses

Shared conditions

Calendar/weather: Y01-M02 — Mid-spring, Year 1. Strong runoff persists; upland paths are clearer; the planting window is active; first Whiteback signs appear around Longmere.
Regional systems: Greywater River and crossings, Westwood and Juniper paths, Ferryend narrows, Longmere/Rushhook outlet, and the still-hidden Whiteback cycle.
Resolution order: Local food, safety, and capacity gates resolve before conditional travel. All outside reports arrive too late to alter another player’s Turn 002 action.

Interaction matrix

ID	Players/NPCs	Place/system	Intentions and initiatives	Causal order	Integrated outcome range	Disclosure
T002-X01	player1, Oren	Ridgeford / Northbarrow routes	Ridgeford offers certified passage terms; Oren needs Ford Meadow and protects access leverage	Ridgeford route test and rebuild plan before compacted work	Conditional compact and unnamed downstream pottery rumor; no player contact	player1 only
T002-X02	player2, Ava	Hazelstead / Juniper path	Hazelstead requests guidance after boundary and planting gates; Ava protects mast, bee trees, and path custom	Boundary walk before visit; Ava’s report returns late	Contact and later path-walk request; Ridgeford identified only as a ford settlement	player2 only
T002-X03	player3, Seln	Claybank / Ferryend narrows	Claybank offers three jars for one service; Seln preserves per-use leverage	Fields and trial before travel	One witnessed crossing; Merehaven named only by fishing reputation	player3 only
T002-X04	player4, Tovan	Longmere / Rushhook outlet	Merehaven requests reciprocal observation; Tovan protects outlet authority	Fuel, rack, and first inlet observation before voyage	Direct AI-community contact and bounded outlet information; no upper-player fact	player4 only
T002-X05	all	Witnessed bounded authority	Each player voluntarily repeats counts, domain vetoes, temporary rules, or reviewable representation	Local and independent	Two-turn attractor hypothesis strengthens; no shared recognition or mechanical effect	GM only

Direct player interaction check

No player directs action toward another player settlement, and no two submissions compete for the same person, crew, store, route segment, or site during the month. No direct player contact, exchange, conflict, or combined scene is supported.

The new name/rumor carriers are information opportunities only:

player2 may hear Ridgeford from Ava as the eastern stone-ford settlement;
player3 may hear Merehaven from Seln as a lake fishing settlement;
player1 may hear only an unconfirmed rumor of a large downstream pottery settlement from Oren;
player4’s Rushhook contact supplies no player-settlement identity.

None of these carriers knows or conveys another player’s submission, current private condition, or hidden state.

Shared affected actors

Actor/faction	Affected by	Knowledge boundary	Motive/trigger	Cross-player significance
Oren / Northbarrow	player1	Public Ridgeford crossing terms; rumor of pottery downstream	Fodder horizon and witnessed access	Potential Ford Meadow and downstream carrier in Turn 003
Ava / Juniper Fold	player2	Hazelstead visit; prior knowledge of the ford settlement only	Protect path, mast, bee trees	Establishes player2’s first player-clan name carrier
Seln / Ferryend	player3	Claybank’s three-jar offer; Merehaven reputation only	Preserve service leverage and obtain vessels	Establishes player3’s first player-clan name carrier
Tovan / Rushhook	player4	Merehaven delegation and local questions only	Protect outlet catch and resist unilateral restrictions	Creates later route to lake timing and Ferryend carriers

Shared-world agency sequence

Beat	Prior state	Autonomous action	Collision/response	Leadership influence	Unresolved consequence
1	Strong runoff and finite food/fuel margins	Domain authorities enforce route, soil, ground, body, water, and capacity vetoes	No veto is overridden by title	Strong plans keep failures bounded and visible	Western crossing, wet field edge, kiln quarter, and fuel scarcity persist
2	Concealed local responsibility in three communities	Dorr and Rusk defend emergency/technical decisions; Beren defends marking authority; Toren disputes scope without confessing	Witnessed procedures reveal Dorr, Beren, and Rusk actions; Toren’s authorship remains hidden because no crew inquiry supports it	Status-preserving procedures increase candor without universal harmony	Restitution, clearing authority, kiln accountability, and net authorship remain live
3	AI offers or routes are available	Oren, Ava, Seln, and Tovan respond from constituency interests	Each player accepts only a bounded, conditional interaction	High-quality terms improve clarity, not automatic consent	Future path, crossing, ferry, and seasonal-fish terms remain open
4	Players begin without player-clan knowledge	Ava and Seln transmit only prior general knowledge; Oren transmits rumor; Tovan transmits outlet observations	Reports arrive after local actions	No same-turn strategy changes	Several optional Turn 003 convergence paths become plausible

Information propagation

Fact	Source	Carrier/path	Recipient	Timing	Epistemic status	Visibility
Ridgeford is a stone-ford settlement east of the wood	Ava’s prior knowledge	Ava → Hazelstead delegation → leader-hazelstead	player2	Late Turn 002	REPORTED / CONFIRMED identity, no condition	player2
Merehaven is a lake fishing settlement known by reputation	Seln’s prior knowledge	Seln → Venn and Miri → leader-claybank	player3	Late Turn 002	REPORTED / TENTATIVE reputation	player3
A large pottery settlement is rumored downstream	Oren’s rumor	Oren → Ridgeford meeting witnesses → leader-ridgeford	player1	Late Turn 002	RUMORED / TENTATIVE, unnamed	player1
Pale-backed fish appear first near the outlet before spreading through lake waters	Tovan’s fragmentary observation	Tovan → Cal/Neri delegation → leader-merehaven	player4	Late Turn 002	REPORTED / TENTATIVE regional inference	player4

Contact and convergence opportunities

Opportunity	Established carrier/route/timing	Players able to act	Refusal branch	Optional outcome
Juniper east path	Ava’s witnessed path request after Turn 002	player2; potentially player1 later	Either settlement can decline path work	Indirect message, boundary witness, or future meeting
Ferryend–lake chain	Seln knows Claybank and Merehaven by reputation	player3; potentially player4 through later Ferryend contact	Each can keep exchange local	Messages, route comparison, or eventual boat contact
Ford Meadow / downstream rumor	Oren’s cattle network and unnamed pottery rumor	player1; potentially player3 later	Compact can stay local or fail certification	Shared meadow, river carrier, or continued isolation
Rushhook observation chain	Cal/Neri contact Tovan at outlet	player4; potentially Ferryend later	Merehaven can refuse seasonal terms	Reciprocal fish observation or conflict

Attractor evidence

Hypothesis	Voluntary investments	Participants	Recognition/comparison	Missing evidence
Witnessed bounded authority increases legitimate coordination	All four repeat public accounts, specific domain vetoes, temporary/reviewable rules, and evidence before sanction across Turns 001–002	player1–player4 independently	Local actors respond and institutions begin to persist	No cross-community recognition, comparison, dependency, or conflict; no basis for a mechanical rule or victory condition

This is now a credible two-turn observation, not an active rule. Reassess after Turn 003 as the charter requires. Do not apply a bonus.

Rule, victory, and elimination review

Emergent rule activation: None recommended.
Victory proposal: None. The two-turn practice lacks cross-community recognition and meaningful comparison.
Elimination: None proposed; no leader faces loss of control.
Direct player contact: None.

Integrated recommendation

Approve T002-D01 through T002-D04 as the four outcome packages. Apply the information carriers only after local resolution and only within each named player’s knowledge envelope. Record the repeated witnessed-authority pattern as GM-only attractor evidence for the post-Turn-003 review, with no mechanical effect.